On Monday, October 28th, US crude oil fell sharply during the Asian trading session, returning to the lower edge of the range and showing signs of breaking through. Currently, the risk aversion of the geopolitical situation has subsided. Israel's retaliatory attack on Iran over the weekend bypassed Tehran's oil and nuclear infrastructure, did not interrupt energy supply, eased the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, and further lowered the pressure on the supply side, which is unfavorable for oil prices to rise. At the same time, as the US presidential election approaches, demand expectations have not shown signs of recovery, and waiting for direction choices is the main focus.

According to sources, India's largest refinery complex operator, Reliance Industries, is restructuring its trading business, including relocating most of its Dubai crude oil trading team back to Mumbai.

According to sources, after obtaining long-term oil supply from Russia and reducing spot purchase demand, Reliance's crude oil trading team will relocate before the end of this year. Currently, Reliance has around 20 crude oil traders in its Dubai office.

Reliance has reached a crude oil import agreement with Russia. It has also signed long-term crude oil import agreements with major oil producing countries in the Middle East, so there is no need to incur additional costs for retaining employees there, "the source said.

In 2021, Reliance announced the opening of an office in the United Arab Emirates to engage in the trade of refined fuels, including petroleum and petrochemical products. One year later, the team moved to Dubai, because after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Dubai became the hub of Russian oil trade. According to trade channel data, Reliance Group, which used to rarely purchase Russian oil, now imports about two fifths of its demand from Russia.

Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven and his team pointed out in a report that with China's recent implementation of a series of economic stimulus measures, the growth prospects of the economy are expected to improve, which may have a positive impact on crude oil demand, expected to increase by about 100000 barrels per day. In addition, these analysts predict that by the end of 2025, these measures may cause oil prices to rise by $1 to $2 per barrel.

On a technical level, the 4-hour level of US crude oil has fallen below the previous adjustment low point, and the indicators have not deviated. Currently, the channel supports around $66, waiting for confirmation of support. If the gap pressure above $70 cannot be stabilized, there is a possibility of accelerating the bearish structure.

(4-hour chart of US crude oil)

The opening of the daily MACD indicator has further widened, and the convergence support around $68 has not yet been confirmed to fall below. If it chooses to fall below, the large triangle will converge and break, accelerating the downward trend. If it does not break, it will maintain range oscillation.

(Daily chart of US crude oil)