Analysis of the Japanese yen market: Post election risks increase, bearish sentiment heats up

2024-10-29 1145

In the House of Representatives election on October 27th, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party failed to secure a majority of seats, leading to uncertainty in future policies. This result puts the Japanese government in a weaker position, which may affect monetary policy and market sentiment. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces severe challenges, and analysts generally predict that his tenure may be shortened, adding complex factors to the yen market.

As of now, the USD/JPY has remained weak in Asian market trading on October 29th, while the Japanese yen has shown some resistance to decline. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen fell to around 147.50, approaching last week's high of 147.88. The market's attention to the upcoming meeting of the Bank of Japan is constantly increasing, and investors' expectations for future policy directions will directly affect the trend of the yen.

After the election defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan, various parties are trying to form a coalition government, and this uncertainty has weakened market participants' confidence in future economic policies. William Pesek pointed out that although Shigeru Ishiba may still be able to form some form of coalition government, overall stability will be affected. Damian Thong from Macquarie Capital stated that future policies may focus on renewable energy and social spending, but the performance of the yen still depends on the external economic environment and the effectiveness of policy implementation.

The Bank of Japan is about to hold a meeting, and in this context, the market is generally concerned about the central bank's attitude towards monetary policy. Considering the weak recovery of the Japanese economy, it is expected that the central bank will not rush to raise interest rates, which provides some support for the yen, but long-term bearish sentiment still lurks.

At the international level, the market's attention to the US election also affects the trend of the Japanese yen. Analysts point out that if there is a significant change in policy direction after the US election, it may have an impact on the yen. In addition, CFTC's position data indicates that net long positions in the yen continued to shrink last week, and investor bearish sentiment towards the yen is heating up.

Overall, the Japanese yen faces multiple challenges, including government uncertainty, US elections, and central bank policies, all of which may have profound impacts on it. Although the Japanese yen may maintain some resilience in the short term, the accumulation of long-term bearish sentiment may lead to further depreciation. Traders need to closely monitor the upcoming economic data and policy guidelines to grasp market fluctuations.

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