ADP data is coming soon! Can gold take advantage of the situation to hit the 2800 level?
The market performance on Wednesday (October 30th) continued the recent strong upward trend, with gold prices hitting a new historical high of $2789.83 per ounce in early trading and rising significantly by over $15. With the ongoing conflicts and increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, gold has once again become a safe haven for investors.
The current geopolitical situation's driving force on gold prices cannot be ignored. The escalating conflict in the Middle East, especially the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, has significantly increased the market's sensitivity to risks. In this context, investors are turning to safe haven assets such as gold to avoid risks. In addition, the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election is also one of the important factors driving the rise of gold.
At the same time, the decline in the yield of US treasury bond bonds also provided additional support for gold. Although dollar bulls remain cautious at the three-month high set on Tuesday, the relative attractiveness of gold still exists. Analyst Haresh Menghani pointed out that the slight overbought situation on the daily chart may temporarily suppress further bets from bullish traders, but the overall market trend remains upward.
On Wednesday (October 30th), investors will closely monitor important economic data in the United States, including the October ADP employment change data to be released at 20:15 Beijing time, as well as the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data to be released at 20:30. According to a survey by a well-known institution, it is expected that ADP employment will increase by 115000 in October, while the initial annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter is expected to increase by 3%. If these data do not perform as expected, it may lead to further pressure on the US dollar, thereby driving up gold prices.
Technical analysis
Technically speaking, after breaking through the resistance zone of $2780-2785 per ounce, the gold price has become a bullish attack signal. According to Menghani's analysis, gold prices may further push towards the $2800/ounce mark. Although the RSI was slightly overbought during the day, the path of least resistance for gold remains upward due to the lack of significant selling.
Currently, any meaningful pullback is expected to find good support around $2750 per ounce. If there is a subsequent sell-off in gold prices, it may push them to the support level of $2732-2730 per ounce, and even further drop to the $2715 per ounce area.
The market generally believes that gold prices have the potential to further rise in the coming trading sessions after breaking through the key level of $2758.40 per ounce. If the gold price successfully breaks through $2785.00 per ounce, it will open up space for further upward movement.
In summary, the expected trend for gold prices today is bullish. Investors can pay attention to the fluctuations between the support level of $2765.00 per ounce and the resistance level of $2800.00 per ounce when operating. Under the current market sentiment and technical conditions, gold remains a noteworthy investment target. With the upcoming release of important economic data, market volatility may increase, and investors should remain vigilant and adjust their trading strategies in a timely manner.
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