On Friday (July 5th), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the non farm payroll in the United States recorded 206000 people after the quarterly adjustment in June, higher than market expectations, but slightly lower than last month's data.

The number of new non-agricultural employment in April was revised from 165000 to 108000; The number of new non-agricultural employment in May was revised from 272000 to 218000. After the correction, the total number of new jobs added in April and May decreased by 111000 compared to before the correction.

After the release of non farm payroll data in the United States in June, spot gold slightly declined and then rose, reaching a new high since June 7th. The intraday price was $2374.50 per ounce, and the intraday increase expanded to 0.76%.

The employment data for June clearly sent some mixed signals, but overall, they are leaning towards an economic slowdown. This will spark debate about how strong (or weak) the labor market is. Anyway, the debate about the Federal Reserve will intensify in the coming weeks.

The Chief North American Economist of Kaitou Macroeconomics commented on non farm payroll in June: Although non farm employment increased by 206000 in June, exceeding expectations of 190000, this report is overall disappointing when we consider the 111000 cuts in the past few months and the further increase in unemployment rate to 4.1%, which takes us one step closer to triggering the Sam's rule on economic recession. The increase of 206000 is not as good as it first appears. The number of government employees has increased by 70000, and the employment of non education state and local governments has significantly increased, which is inconsistent with the rumored evidence that many states have had to control spending due to budget shortages. Out of the 136000 job opportunities added in the private sector, healthcare and social assistance accounted for 82000. This indicates that cyclical employment only increased by about 50000, further proving weak GDP growth. The significant reduction of 48900 temporary aid workers is also a worrying sign.

Chief Market Economist at Sparta Capital Securities in New York commented on non farm payroll in June: We see that the labor market is still creating job opportunities, but the unemployment rate is rising, which may be seen as a negative factor, possibly due to a weak private sector. The key is that wages are decreasing, which is a respected report for the market. As far as the Federal Reserve is concerned, last week we heard a series of unfavorable macro news, which indicated that the economic downturn was faster than previously anticipated. Therefore, this report puts the Federal Reserve in a comfortable position. What I mean is, if this situation continues next month without an increase in hourly wages, then I believe we will see a rate cut in September and another rate cut in December.

Casey Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Jiaxing Wealth Management, said that the downward correction to the first two months of data, combined with the rise in unemployment rate, is an important data point, and wage growth is also slowing down. All of this combined has created a trend of economic and labor market slowdown. Although trading was light this week due to holidays, the market is still responding. After the data was released, the yield of US treasury bond bonds fell and stock index futures rose. The yield on 10-year US treasury bond bonds fell 5 basis points to 4.31%. This indicates that traders are not waiting for any analysis, they have determined that this means the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates.

Rubeela Farooqi, Chief US Economist at New York High Frequency Economics, said, "We now have the last second quarter employment data, and there is enough evidence to suggest that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. Overall, the slowdown in second quarter employment, coupled with rising unemployment rates, and recent data showing a slower growth path, all support the reason for this year's rate cut. We believe that if the data continues to show moderation, the Federal Reserve will definitely start discussing rate cuts at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting and lower policy rates in September."

Asset management firm Apollo analyst Tosten Slock believes that the current data does not mean that the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates. He said, "The key discussion in the market will be whether this cooling of the economy will accelerate its decline due to high financing costs. Or, will we see the economy accelerate again due to high stock prices and tightening credit spreads? My view remains unchanged, that is, today's report confirms that the Federal Reserve will take time to cool the economy and inflation, and we still believe that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year."

Chief Economist of ANNEX Wealth Management commented on non-agricultural sectors in June: Manufacturing simply has no breathing room. The employment rate remains stable and sluggish, with only 45.8% of manufacturing reporting an increase in employment rate. The construction industry is a highlight of this report, and the employment rate of most non residential professional trade contractors has increased. The worrying trend is that the number of people engaged in part-time work increased by 18% last year, as they can only find part-time jobs. Although the overall figures are good, not all are sunshine and happiness.

Nick Timiraos, the Federal Reserve's mouthpiece, said that the US unemployment rate in June rose from 3.96% in May to 4.05% in June. This data has increased by 0.22% since March (3.83%). According to Sam's rule, the 3-month average has increased by 0.42% compared to the 12-month low, which is approaching the threshold of 0.5%. The connotation of the "Sam's rule" is that when the three-month average unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points higher than the 12-month low, the economy enters a recession.

Analyst Michael MacKenzie said that after the release of US non-farm data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates remains unchanged, and the September swap pricing shows that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 18 basis points. The mild response after the release of the employment report indicates that the bond market will wait for news from Powell next week and be prepared to review June CPI data before feeling more confident about the September rate cut.