On Friday (November 1st), US crude oil continued its upward trend during the Asian trading session, currently trading around $70.47 per barrel. There are reports that Iran is preparing to retaliate against Israel within a few days, and the delayed increase in OPEC+production has led to a oversold rebound in oil prices. Currently, it has not been able to shake off the box range and needs to wait for fundamental changes after the US election.

This trading day, the focus is on whether the US non farm payroll data supports further strengthening of the US dollar, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in November and driving the recovery of US crude oil demand.

Iran prepares to launch attacks on Israel from Iraqi territory within a few days

Axios quoted two unnamed Israeli sources on Thursday as saying that Israeli intelligence indicates that Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the November 5th US presidential election.

The attack carried out by pro Iranian militia groups in Iraq may be an action taken by Tehran to prevent Israel from attacking Iran's strategic targets again. Israel and Iran have carried out a series of tit for tat military strikes as part of the Middle East war triggered by the Gaza conflict.

On Saturday, Israeli military aircraft attacked missile factories and other locations near Tehran and western Iran in retaliation for Iran's launch of over 200 missiles into Israel on October 1st. A spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on Monday that Tehran will "use all available tools" to respond to Israel's attack

Due to the tense geopolitical situation, the supply side is once again under pressure, which has supported oil prices and does not rule out the possibility of further strengthening.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week of October 26th was lower than expected

According to data released by the US Department of Labor, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending October 26th was 216000, with an expected 230000, and the previous value revised from 227000 to 228000. The average number of initial jobless claims for the week ending October 26th was 236500, with the previous value revised from 238500 to 238750.

The number of unemployment claims renewed in the United States for the week ending October 26th was 1.862 million, with an expected 1.885 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.897 million to 1.888 million.

This is the third consecutive decline in weekly unemployment claims, and the number of claims is currently at its lowest level since May. Analysts believe that the volatility caused by hurricanes Helen and Milton to the labor market may be subsiding.

This means that the previous disruptions to the job market caused by special factors such as natural disasters are weakening, and economic activity and employment are gradually returning to normal.

The decrease in the number of initial jobless claims indicates that the current scale of layoffs in US companies may not be as severe as market concerns suggest, and the labor market remains stable in the short term. This is of great significance for the stable development of the US economy.

Especially in the current complex and ever-changing global economic situation, the relatively stable state of the US labor market provides certain support for the US economy. To some extent, it has put pressure on the Federal Reserve's expectation of a rate cut in November.

The Fed's interest rate cut will help boost economic growth and boost expectations for a rebound in crude oil demand, but it should be noted that uncertainty still exists as the US election approaches, waiting for the boots to land.

Daily chart of US crude oil