A spokesperson for the Federal Reserve has stated in recent months that the risks faced by the two aspects of its responsibilities - price stability and maximizing employment - have reached a balance. This has made Friday's employment report from the Ministry of Labor the focus of attention. On November 1st (Friday) at 20:30 Beijing time, the United States will release its non farm payroll report for October.

The market expects an increase of 125000 non farm jobs in October, lower than the exceptionally strong 254000 jobs in September. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1% in October.

ZipRecruiter Chief Economist Julia Pollack stated that this week's non farm payroll report will indicate that growth is slowing down and becoming more concentrated in a few industries. The main areas of job creation this year are government, healthcare, leisure, and hotel industries, and this situation still exists, especially in the healthcare sector. ZipRecruiter has also found that people are more interested in the technology industry as well as related businesses such as finance and insurance.

Citi economist Veronica Clark stated in a recent report that "October's data will be an important confirmation or denial of the strength of September's data, but may not be enough to shift market attention back to the risk of a US recession

However, the October data will reflect the ongoing Boeing strike and hurricanes hitting the southeast. Clark estimates that these factors will drag down employment by 70000 to 80000 people.

Clark also stated that due to temporary factors affecting the October data, the market may see a slowdown in employment growth this month. It may take until the data for November or December is released before the truly weak employment trend can satisfy the market and Federal Reserve officials.

Citigroup's view on the US job market is more moderate than market expectations, predicting a non farm payroll increase of 90000 in October and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.23%. In addition, Citigroup stated that any downward correction to the September data may be more important than usual.

Dennis DeBusschere from 22V Research said, "Given the impact of the hurricane, almost any salary data will be affected." DeBusschere also stated, "The hurricane may affect average hourly earnings through working hours and mixed shifts

In addition to Citigroup, many investment banks have also provided their own forecasts for non farm payroll in October.

Barclays predicts that due to the Boeing strike and recent hurricanes affecting US employment, non farm payroll growth in October will decrease from 254000 in September to 125000. Salary growth is expected to remain stable in October, with average hourly income expected to increase by 0.4% month on month (4.1% year-on-year), and weekly working hours expected to slightly decrease to 34.1 hours.

In addition, Barclays stated that the US unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.2% in October, partly due to temporary impacts from strikes and hurricanes.

Goldman Sachs estimates that Hurricane Helen reduced employment by 50000 people, although Hurricane Milton may have occurred too late to affect employment in October. Goldman Sachs added that the Boeing strike could lead to a decrease of 41000 in total employment, with an expected increase of 95000 in total employment.

Michael Aron, Chief Economist of State Street Global Advisors, predicts that the average hourly wage in the United States will increase by 0.3% in October, up 4% from the same period last year, and the annual data will remain the same as September, further confirming the claim that inflation is sticky but not accelerating.

Based on the above news, if the US non farm payroll slows down in October as predicted by institutions, it will increase market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts, suppress the US dollar, and boost gold. Investors need to keep an eye on this.

Daily chart of spot gold