According to forex analyst Gary Howes, the EUR/USD exchange rate remained stable at a level slightly below 1.09 ahead of the crucial US presidential election. But if Trump wins, it may once again trigger significant selling pressure.

If Trump wins, it is expected that the euro may fall to 1.0760 against the US dollar before the weekend. However, if Harris wins (a probability that has significantly increased over the weekend), the euro is expected to rebound further.

On Monday, the euro rose slightly against the US dollar as the market observed a decrease in Trump's chances of winning the election. Multiple polls released last weekend were more inclined towards Harris' victory, with one even suggesting that she may win an unexpected victory in Iowa.

However, currently the market is betting that the probability of Trump winning the US election has risen to 57.7%, and Harris' probability of winning is 42.4%

Daoming Securities pointed out that if Trump is re elected, it may trigger a significant rise in the US dollar; If Harris wins, the US dollar may weaken as Trump's risk premium recedes, as the 'blue wave' exacerbates the economic recession in the United States.

Valentin Marinov, an analyst at the French Agricultural Credit Bank, said that if Trump wins the election and there is a "red sweep", where the Republican Party wins both houses of Congress, the euro against the dollar and the pound against the dollar may fall to their lowest points in the first quarter of 2024. On the contrary, if Harris wins the election and a divided parliament emerges, the upward potential of the euro against the US dollar and the pound against the US dollar may be limited to 1.10 and 1.33, respectively.

The foreign exchange market is currently moving towards a red sweep. If this situation does not materialize, we suspect that the US dollar may give up some of its recent gains, "said Chris Turner, Global Markets Director at ING Bank

The timing of the 2024 US election results is not entirely certain, and the key points to focus on are as follows:

On November 6th from 8:00 to 11:00 Beijing time (November 5th from 19:00 to 22:00 Eastern Time), polling stations in each state began to close from east to west, and the vote counting process was subsequently launched.

On November 6th at 12:00 Beijing time (after 23:00 Eastern Time on November 5th), as more state statistics are released, the nationwide election results are gradually becoming clearer. But if the election is deadlocked, it may take longer to wait.

EUR/USD daily chart