On Wednesday (July 17th), in the morning session of the Asian market, gold prices rose slightly, hitting a new historical high of $2469.85 per ounce. Gold prices surged over $40 on Tuesday, setting a record high and closing at $2468.57 per ounce, an increase of about 192%. Investors flocked to safe haven gold after Federal Reserve officials consolidated their expectations of a September rate cut.

Although the monthly retail sales rate in the United States in June was stronger than market expectations, it did not change the consensus that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in September. US bond yields fell to a four month low. In addition, concerns about the possibility of chaos in the United States and the resurgence of geopolitical concerns in the Middle East also provided upward momentum for gold prices.

Independent metal trader Tai Wong said, "Despite stronger than expected core retail sales data, gold prices still hit a record high, as Powell expressed yesterday that the Federal Reserve is increasingly confident in inflation returning to target levels, which has encouraged the market

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated on Monday that recent inflation data has boosted policymakers' confidence that price pressures are on a sustained downward trend, boosting market expectations for a possible rate cut in September.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daley also stated that "confidence is growing" and inflation is approaching the Fed's 2% target.

City Index market analyst Fawad Razaqzada said, "Mainly due to weak economic data and decreasing inflationary pressures, government bond yields continue to be under pressure. This helps to increase the attractiveness of low yield and zero yield assets, keeping the outlook for gold optimistic

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 92.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 7.8%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by September is 100.0%, with a probability of 90.4% for a 25 basis point rate cut, 9.4% for a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut, and 0.2% for a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut.

This trading day focuses on the initial value of the annual total number of construction permits in the United States in June, the annual total number of new housing starts in the United States in June, and the monthly rate of industrial output in the United States in June. Pay attention to the speech of Federal Reserve officials and the Beige Book on the economic situation of the United States.

Technical analysts point out that gold prices are expected to continue their upward trend in the short term, with the upper target levels referring to the vicinity of 2477, 2488, and 2508 respectively, and the lower target levels paying attention to support around 2457 and 2446.

US June retail sales data shows consumer and economic resilience, but does not change expectations for September interest rate cuts

Retail sales in the United States remained unchanged in June compared to the previous month, as the decline in sales from car dealerships was offset by general growth in other areas, demonstrating consumer resilience and enhancing the economic growth prospects for the second quarter.

The better than expected report released by the US Department of Commerce on Tuesday also showed that retail sales data for May was revised upwards. The report did not change the expectation that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in September as inflation cools down, and also helped alleviate concerns about a sharp economic slowdown.

The economic situation is quite good, "said Bill Adams, Chief Economist of Comerica Bank. There are signs that low - and middle-income consumers are cutting back on spending... but the generous spending of affluent consumers is driving the overall economy forward

The US Bureau of Statistics reported that retail sales remained unchanged in June compared to the previous month, and the growth rate in May was revised up to 0.3%, compared to a previous increase of 0.1%. Economists previously predicted that retail sales (mainly goods, not adjusted for inflation) would decrease by 0.3% month on month.

Retail sales in June increased by 2.3% year-on-year. However, compared to the 7.7% increase in January 2023, the momentum has slowed down. After experiencing a period of high inflation, households are downgrading their consumption and seeking cheaper alternatives, as evidenced by the financial reports of major retailers and manufacturers.

Low income consumers are struggling, "said Ramon Laguarta, CEO of PepsiCo, last week." In order to sustain their income until the end of the month, they need to plan their consumption.

Online store sales increased by 1.9% in June and 1.1% in May. Gas station sales decreased by 3.0%, reflecting a decrease in gas station prices. The decrease in gasoline prices may allow consumers to save funds for other consumption.

The sales of building materials and gardening equipment stores increased by 1.4%. The sales of the only service sector in the report - food service and drinking establishments - increased by 0.3% after a 0.4% growth in May. Economists believe that dining out is a key indicator of a family's financial situation.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, reaching a new high in two and a half years, raising concerns about a significant economic slowdown and prompting financial markets to digest the slim possibility of the Federal Reserve initiating a easing cycle this month.

But the idea of a rate cut in July was abandoned on Monday as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not indicate an imminent rate cut at an event at the Washington Economic Club. The financial market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, followed by further cuts in November and December.

LPL Financial's Chief Global Strategist Quincy Krosby said, "This report does not negate the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting on September 18th, unless inflation related data shows rising prices

More and more signs indicate that the spending power of many consumers has reached its limit, "said Ben Ayers, a senior economist at Nationwide. This situation is most evident in low-income families, who are most sensitive to the increase in daily costs and are most likely to face the risk of layoffs

Federal Reserve's Kugler says recent data suggests inflation is moving towards its 2% target

Federal Reserve Governor Kugler stated on Tuesday that recent data indicates that inflation will continue to fall to the Fed's target of 2%. She mentioned the accelerating decline in price pressures, slowing wage increases, and the emerging balance between business demand for workers and job seekers in recent months.

Kugler said, 'I am cautiously optimistic that inflation is returning to the 2% target, and goods, services, and now housing are all helping to alleviate price pressures.'“

We have made greater progress in all three areas now, "she commented, pointing out that the Fed's confidence in containing inflation has increased, which is a precursor to interest rate cuts. I am cautiously optimistic that we are seeing progress, and it is the kind of progress we need to return to 2%

In his prepared speech to the National Association for Business Economics seminar, Kugler said that there has been a "substantial rebalancing" in the job market, with wage growth slowing down and demand for workers aligning with pre pandemic levels.

This sustained rebalancing indicates that the inflation rate will continue to fall back towards our 2% target, "said Kugler. If the economic situation continues to develop in this favorable way, as shown by the inflation data of the past three months, with inflation falling faster and employment softening but still maintaining resilience, as shown in previous employment reports, I expect it will be appropriate to start loosening monetary policy later this year“

Kugler did not specify when a rate cut may be possible, but her speech is in line with an emerging view that the Federal Reserve will lay the foundation for a rate cut at its policy meeting on July 30-31 and may begin reducing borrowing costs at its meeting on September 17-18. Currently, investors believe that the likelihood of such an outcome exceeds 90%.

Kugler said, "Despite some turbulence at the beginning of the year, inflation rates in all price categories continue to decline. Supply and demand are gradually approaching equilibrium," she said. The supply side bottleneck is continuing to heal, and demand has also eased

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also stated that recent data has boosted people's confidence that the inflation rate will drop from the current level, which is about half a percentage point higher, to the target of 2%.

Kugler's speech mainly related to the challenges of economic indicators, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, the official government data often lagged behind the economic development and was out of sync with the decision-making speed of the Federal Reserve policymakers and other officials.

The yield of US Treasury bonds has hit a four month low, and market expectations are that the Federal Reserve is getting closer to cutting interest rates

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to a four month low on Tuesday, with market expectations that the Federal Reserve is getting closer to cutting interest rates.

The sharp drop in bond yields this month, coupled with weak US employment data and slowing inflation, has raised the possibility of a rate cut in September. Traders now expect to cut interest rates twice or even three times by December.

Zachary Griffiths, Senior Investment Grade Strategist at CreditSights, said, "The Federal Reserve has seen more encouraging data in both the labor market and inflation, which allows the market to digest expectations of a more aggressive easing cycle by the Fed

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Monday that the three sets of inflation readings in the United States in the second quarter of this year "have to some extent boosted confidence", indicating that the pace of price increases is continuing to fall towards the Fed's target. This statement suggests that a shift towards interest rate cuts may not be far away.

Federal Reserve Governor Kugler stated on Tuesday that recent data suggests that inflation will continue to fall towards the 2% target.

On Tuesday, yields fell as traders assessed the possibility of adopting more policies to boost inflation if Trump wins the US presidential election in November. The steady retail sales data in June in the United States briefly narrowed the decline in yields.

After last Saturday's attempted assassination, Trump is considered the more likely candidate to win the election. The odds displayed on the online gambling website PredictIt suggest that the likelihood of Trump winning is about 69%, up from about 60% last Friday, while the likelihood of Biden winning is about 24%.

Analysts say that Trump's victory may lead to increased inflation, as potential policies include tax cuts and the imposition of more tariffs.

The yield on 10-year government bonds fell 6 basis points at the end of Wednesday, hitting the lowest level since March 13th at 4.167%.

US 10-year treasury bond bond yield

Poll: 80% of Americans worry about the country falling into chaos

A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Tuesday showed that after the attempted assassination of Trump, American people are increasingly concerned that the country is losing control and that the November 5th election may trigger more political violence.

A two-day poll showed that Republican presidential candidate Trump leads Democratic President Biden by a narrow margin of 43% to 41% among registered voters, within a margin of error of 3 percentage points in the poll, indicating that the Trump assassination did not trigger a significant shift in voter sentiment.

But 80% of voters (with similar proportions of Democrats and Republicans) agree with the statement that 'the country is losing control'. This online survey surveyed 1202 adults across the United States, including 992 registered voters.

About 84% of voters expressed concern that extremist groups may engage in violent behavior after the election, which is higher than the May Reuters/Ipsos poll where 74% of voters were worried.

Only 5% of respondents expressed acceptance of violence committed by someone within their political party to achieve political goals, lower than the 12% in the June 2023 Reuters/Ipsos poll.

In the latest poll, about 67% of respondents are concerned about violence against their communities due to political beliefs, while in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in June 2023, this proportion was 60%. In the latest poll, a majority of people from both parties expressed concern that Americans may resort to violence instead of uniting to peacefully resolve their differences. (End)

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he will increase pressure on Hamas

On the 16th local time, Netanyahu attended a commemorative event and stated that due to the Israeli military's attacks on senior Hamas commanders and personnel, Hamas is facing increasing pressure. Israel will continue to adhere to its consistent position and exert greater pressure on Hamas to achieve all war goals.

According to sources, due to Hamas' previous willingness to implement the first phase of ceasefire and continue negotiations in the absence of Israel's commitment to a "permanent" ceasefire, a ceasefire agreement could have been reached this week, and Hamas will release Israeli detainees next week.

However, sources said that as the agreement was about to be reached, Netanyahu temporarily added two negotiation conditions, demanding that the Israeli army not withdraw from the "Philadelphia Corridor" on the border between Gaza Strip and Egypt, and prohibiting Hamas militants from returning to the northern Gaza Strip.

Sources say that due to the threat of Israeli National Security Minister Ben Gevel, who belongs to the far right in the country, to withdraw from the ruling coalition, Netanyahu disrupted the ceasefire agreement in order to avoid the collapse of the government.