On Friday (November 15th), the EUR/USD was trading around 1.0540 in the European session. Fundamentally, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated on Thursday that there was no need to hastily cut interest rates,

The continued economic growth, stable job market, and sustained inflation are the reasons for being cautious about relaxing policies too quickly.

According to data from the US Department of Labor, the number of first-time applicants for unemployment benefits decreased by 4000 to 217000 in the week ending November 9th,

Lower than the expected 223000 people surveyed by economists by Reuters, indicating a sustained stable labor market. Short term data and speeches are mostly positive for the US dollar,

Therefore, as the long position of the US dollar accelerates, the euro against the US dollar hits a one-year low. Even if there is a rebound structurally, it is only a correction after oversold, and the probability of reversal is not high,

After waiting for the US dollar index to retrace, the direction of choice for Europe and the United States will continue to fluctuate downwards.

Technically speaking, the euro has fallen below the important support of 1.0600 against the US dollar, accelerating its downward trend at the weekly level and testing the low point of October 2023,

If the price continues to break, it will open up downward space. If the short-term pullback pressure of 1.0600 cannot stabilize, the bearish structure will remain unchanged.

(EUR/USD weekly chart)

At the 4-hour level, the current 45 cycle moving average has turned downward and there are no signs of leveling off, indicating insufficient price deviation,

Due to the KDJ indicator entering the oversold range, there may be a short-term rebound, but it can still resist the bearish trend and wait for the opportunity to short after a pullback,

The 4-hour level pressure is around 1.0600, and if it falls below 1.0490, it opens up downward space.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart