Energy analyst Felicity Bradstock warns that the United States continues to maintain sanctions against multiple countries including Iran, Venezuela, and Russia. Although the Biden administration relaxed sanctions on Venezuela's energy at the beginning of this year, and Iran is increasingly able to evade sanctions, there is currently no clear path to completely end the sanctions. Now, with Trump elected as president for his second consecutive term, US energy sanctions may become even harsher as he focuses on increasing domestic oil and gas production and strengthening control over these countries.

Trump has repeatedly vowed during the campaign to impose stricter sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil, which could lead to a reduction in global oil supply and push up prices.

In a research report, a commodity analyst at Goldman Sachs wrote, "Conceptually, the impact of Trump's possible re-election on oil prices is vague, and there are some short-term downside risks to Iran's oil supply, leading to price upside risks. However, oil demand faces medium-term downside risks, so trade tensions may escalate, and global GDP also faces downside risks

Trump often calls for increased drilling at rallies, and it is expected that he will increase support for US oil and gas production. The uncertainty of new permits during Biden's tenure will become a thing of the past, as oil and gas companies will conduct more exploration activities to maintain record levels of crude oil and natural gas production. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States is the world's largest oil producing country, accounting for 22% of the world's total crude oil production.

Although oil and gas production has grown to historic highs under Biden's leadership, energy restrictions on sanctioned countries such as Iran and Venezuela have also been relaxed. Despite ongoing sanctions, Iran's current crude oil production is about 3.5 million barrels per day and exports are 1.8 million barrels per day. This is a significant increase in production during the Trump administration, with production dropping to an official low of around 400000 barrels per day under the previous government's "maximum pressure" campaign.

The market has begun to see a change in the trend of Iranian oil, with exports declining due to the complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Under the leadership of the new Trump administration, Iran's exports are expected to further decline due to the anticipated implementation of stricter sanctions.

Last week, Trump chose US Senator Rubio, who has long advocated for a tougher US policy towards countries such as Iran, as the Secretary of State for the new administration. Rapidan Energy President Bob McNally stated that Senator Rubio has maintained a hawkish stance on issues related to Iran and Venezuela. Rubio will "enthusiastically implement President elect Trump's plan to put pressure on Iran's crude oil exports.

Based on Trump's statements during the campaign and his appointments to key government positions, he is likely to impose stricter energy sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, and Russia after taking office. The United States is in a favorable position in this regard because its oil and gas production is at historic highs. However, stricter sanctions may lead to retaliation from some countries as their energy supply chains may be disrupted. Sanctions may also encourage Venezuela and Iran to deepen their relationship with each other, causing greater geopolitical turmoil.

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