At the beginning of the Asian market on Friday (November 22), spot gold fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading at $2669.18 per ounce. Gold prices rose for the fourth consecutive trading day on Thursday, reaching a high of $2673.38 per ounce, a new high in nearly two weeks, as Russia launched a strike on a military facility in Ukraine using hypersonic intermediate range ballistic missiles and warned the West, raising concerns in the market about the tense situation between Russia and Ukraine, leading to a surge in safe haven demand. Concerns about the international trade situation have also boosted the safe haven buying demand for gold.

Data shows that the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, saw its holdings increase by 2.58 tons on Thursday, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of increase and reaching a new high of 877.97 tons since November 8th.

However, economic data such as changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States have shown strong performance, and Federal Reserve officials have also leaned towards hawkish speeches. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have risen. If gold prices cannot break through the resistance of the 21 day moving average 2676.47-2680 region, it is necessary to guard against bearish counterattacks.

Putin claims Russia launches hypersonic ballistic missiles into Ukraine as a warning to the West

Russian President Putin stated on Thursday that Russia launched a strike on a military facility in Ukraine using hypersonic intermediate range ballistic missiles and warned the West that Moscow may strike any military facility of a country that uses weapons to attack Russia.

Putin said that the Western countries allowed Kiev to use its long-range missiles to attack Russia, which escalated the Russia-Ukraine conflict and is becoming a global conflict.

Putin stated that Russia conducted actual combat tests of the Oreshnik hypersonic missile system (codenamed Hazelnut) in response to NATO countries' aggression against Russia.

Putin said, "In response to the use of long-range weapons from the United States and the United Kingdom, on November 21st of this year, the Russian armed forces launched a joint strike on a facility at the Ukrainian military industrial complex

Putin said, "Under actual combat conditions, a missile and other weapons from Russia's latest intermediate range missile system were tested. This time, ballistic missiles from non nuclear hypersonic equipment were used

David Meger, the head of metal trading at Gaoling Futures, said, "In the past few days, what has really been at work in the gold market is a major geopolitical factor - the escalating tension between Ukraine and Russia may be the most notable

During the global crisis, investors flocked to safe haven assets, and since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in October last year, gold has repeatedly hit historic highs.

So far this week, spot gold prices have risen by 4%, the best performance since April, recovering from the largest weekly decline in over three weeks last week.

ECB says trade war will cause huge losses to global growth

Philip Lane, Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, stated on Thursday that if trade becomes more fragmented, global economic output will suffer a "considerable" loss, and the direct driving force on inflation will gradually disappear in a few years.

This is the most severe warning issued by the European Central Bank so far regarding the consequences of the global trade war. Since Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election this month, the trade war has been the most concerning issue for investors.

In a presentation prepared for Amsterdam, Lien said, "Fragmentation of trade can cause huge output losses

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to a seven month low last week

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to its lowest level in seven months last week, suggesting that job growth is likely to rebound in November after a sudden slowdown last month due to hurricanes and strikes.

However, laid-off workers need longer time to find new jobs, which poses an upward risk to the unemployment rate. The report released by the Ministry of Labor on Thursday also showed that the number of unemployed people has reached its highest level since the end of 2021.

Despite the lack of progress in pushing inflation to its 2% target in recent times, the idle labor market gives the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates for the third time next month.

There is almost no evidence of large-scale layoffs, "said Gisela Hoxha, an economist at Citigroup. However, in an environment of sluggish recruitment activities, those unemployed find it harder to find new jobs and take longer to receive unemployment benefits, which means there is a risk of an upward trend in the unemployment rate

As of the week ending November 16th, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits from the state government decreased by 6000, to 213000 after seasonal adjustment, the lowest level since April. Economists surveyed by Reuters predict that the number of applicants will be 220000.

This data includes the Veterans Memorial Day holiday, which may cause some fluctuations. Last week, the number of unadjusted applicants decreased by 17750 to 213035.

Despite the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as the Boeing BA, in early October The strike of factory workers at N and another aerospace company has led to a sharp increase in the overall number of unemployment claims, but the number of layoffs remains at a low level. This alleviates the impact of sluggish recruitment on the labor market.

The above data is included in the survey period conducted by the government for the non farm employment section of the November employment report. Between the survey period of October and November, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits decreased by 29000.

The data on the renewal of unemployment benefits to be released next week may make the labor market situation clearer in November.

The data also shows that as of the week ending November 9th, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits, which measures recruitment, increased by 36000, to 1.908 million after seasonal adjustment.

The number of unadjusted applications for unemployment benefits increased by 21782 to 1.669 million.

Some people believe that the gap between adjusted and unadjusted unemployment claims suggests that recent growth may be due to the difficulty of removing seasonal fluctuations from the data.

Strong rebound in existing home sales in the United States

The real estate market, which was first affected by radical tightening policies, has temporarily breathed a sigh of relief.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported in another report that existing home sales in October jumped 3.4% month on month after falling to a 14 year low in September, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million households. Economists had previously estimated 3.93 million households.

The sales of completed homes in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking the first year-on-year growth since July 2021. The sales of completed homes in October may reflect contracts signed in August and September, when mortgage rates fell in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's policy easing.

The inventory of houses in October was 1.37 million households, an increase of 19.1% compared to a year ago. Despite the increase in supply, the median price of existing homes has risen by 4.0% compared to the same period last year, reaching $407200, the highest October level in history.

According to the sales rate in October, it will take 4.2 months to sell out the current existing inventory, compared to 3.6 months a year ago. A supply of four to seven months is considered a healthy supply-demand balance.

Federal Reserve's Gulsby says labor market has stabilized, may need to slow pace of rate cuts

Chicago Fed President Goolsby reiterated on Thursday that he supports further interest rate cuts and is open to taking slower action, highlighting the debate among Fed policymakers that the issue is not whether to cut rates, but the speed and magnitude of the cuts.

Some Federal Reserve decision-makers are concerned that progress in reducing inflation may have stalled and are calling for a cautious approach, while others want to ensure that the labor market does not further cool down, implying the need for further interest rate cuts. On top of all these differing opinions, there remains an uncertain factor, namely how the tariffs and tax cuts promised by President elect Trump, as well as policies to combat immigration, will affect prices, employment, and the broader economy.

Federal Reserve policymakers will hold a meeting on December 17-18 to decide whether to lower policy rates again or wait until next year.

A Reuters survey shows that most economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, with even smaller cuts expected in 2025.

The expectation of a December interest rate cut has significantly decreased, with a current probability of 56%, a significant decrease from 82.5% a week ago.

During his speech at the Central Indiana Business Partnership, Goolsby did not disclose whether he supports another interest rate cut next month, but he did put forward a long-term view that seems to be shared by most Federal Reserve decision-makers - that interest rates have not yet reached the level they need to reach.

He stated that inflation has decreased over the past year and a half and is moving towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the labor market has cooled down, and the economy is currently approaching stable full employment.

Therefore, the interest rate in one year should be "much lower than it is now", he said. The current policy interest rate target range of the Federal Reserve is 4.50% -4.75%.

Federal Reserve policymakers predicted in September that the target range for policy rates should be between 2.9% and 4.1% by the end of next year. Afterwards, stronger than expected inflation data and significant fluctuations in monthly employment data may have changed these views to some extent, and the Federal Reserve will release its latest forecast at next month's meeting.

Given the uncertainty and differing opinions among decision-makers on how much interest rates should be lowered, Gulsby said, "As inflation approaches the target, slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts may be reasonable

Gulsby said on Thursday that he has moved on from concerns expressed earlier this year, when he was worried that the US labor market could cool significantly from an overheated state, to the point where it could become completely weak, which could force the Federal Reserve to quickly cut interest rates significantly.

He said, 'I am confident that we will not rapidly decline from full employment to a more secure state,' and believed that we have already stabilized near full employment.

The US dollar rose to a 13 month high after the release of unemployment benefits data

The US dollar rose to a 13 month high in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors evaluated the latest labor market data and comments from Federal Reserve officials on interest rate trends.

Recent comments from decision-makers such as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggest that the Fed may slow down on the path of interest rate cuts, while concerns that Trump's policies may reignite inflation have pushed the US dollar to a high of 107.15, the highest level since October 4, 2023.

The US dollar index, which measures the exchange rate of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.39% on Thursday and closed at 107.06.

Some people may think that the current market pricing is very hawkish, a bit like shifting from one extreme to another. Therefore, in some pricing towards the Federal Reserve and possibly the Bank of England, it has begun to appear somewhat aggressive. But at the same time, their recent statements are quite hawkish, "said Brad Bechtel, global foreign exchange manager at Wealthy in New York." We may oscillate and consolidate at the current level, where the US dollar price is influenced by many factors, so I will never chase after it

John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, stated in an interview published in Barron's on Thursday that he believes inflation is cooling down and interest rates will further decline. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated in an interview with the Financial Times that compared to the past, the United States is more susceptible to inflationary shocks.

US Treasury yields climb, traders wait for new economic clues

The yield of treasury bond bonds rose on Thursday, and traders were waiting for new data that would provide further clues for the Federal Reserve's policy. Earlier, the news of the Russian missile attack on Ukraine attracted some safe haven buying.

The yield of the 10-year treasury bond bond was consolidating near its high in more than five months, and traders waited for the employment and inflation data to be released in early December to find new signs of the US economic strength.

Vail Hartman, US interest rate strategist at Montreal Bank Capital Markets, said, "The first trading week of December is the next week that can truly impact the outlook for the Federal Reserve and the macro outlook

As the US economy remains more resilient than previously expected, traders have reduced their bets on the number of times the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates.

As investors began to bet on Trump's victory in the general election and the Republicans took control of Congress, treasury bond bond yields rose in the past two months. It is expected that Trump will introduce policies to promote economic growth, and analysts say that immigration reform and tariffs may also lead to rising inflation.

Subadra Rajappa, head of US interest rate strategy at Societe Generale, said, "The market is paying attention to signs of geopolitics and Trump policies, and there is no clear trend, with very little change in yields

The yield on US 10-year treasury bond bonds rose 2.4 basis points to 4.43% on Thursday. Last Friday, it reached 4.505%, the highest since May 31st.

The yield of two-year treasury bond bonds rose 3.2 basis points to 4.34% on Thursday. Last Friday, it reached 4.379%, the highest since July 31st.

This trading day will see the November PMI data of European and American countries. Investors need to make an appointment to pay attention and continue to monitor the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. They should also pay attention to the latest developments related to Trump.