On Thursday (November 28th), spot gold prices rose slightly and are currently trading at $2637.67 per ounce, an increase of 0.07% for the day. Although the gold price fell to $2620 per ounce in the early trading session, with the rise of safe haven sentiment and increased market expectations for Fed policy adjustments, gold once again received buying support and rebounded to near intraday highs. Overall, the gold market still faces multiple intertwined influencing factors, including the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, macroeconomic data, and ongoing geopolitical risks.

Federal Reserve Policy Expectations and US Dollar Trends

The US economic data released this week shows that the economic performance remains robust. The annualized GDP growth rate in the third quarter of the United States reached 2.8%, and consumer spending increased by 3.5%, far exceeding market expectations. At the same time, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increased by 2.3% year-on-year, and the core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating that inflationary pressure still exists. These data may make the Federal Reserve more cautious in its December interest rate decision or lower market expectations for further rate cuts.

In addition, the yield of US 10-year treasury bond bonds has rebounded from the bottom recently, providing support for the US dollar. Despite the previous weakening of the US dollar due to risk aversion, the stabilization of the US dollar index has limited the upward movement of gold prices with the recovery of yields and stable macroeconomic data.

However, the dominant force of risk aversion cannot be ignored. The market's concerns about the possibility of US President elect Trump pushing for a new round of tariff policies, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions (such as the Russia Ukraine situation and other potential conflicts), provide important support for gold. This indicates that although the strengthening of the US dollar may put pressure on gold, its safe haven nature will still attract capital inflows in the short term. Renowned analysis institutions have pointed out that the combination of these factors may drive the market's capital allocation from risky assets to safe haven assets, thereby further supporting gold prices.

Technical performance

From a technical perspective, spot gold is fluctuating around $2630 per ounce. Previously, during the Asian trading session, gold prices encountered resistance in the $2638-2639 range and failed to break through the key 100 cycle moving average (EMA), indicating that upward pressure still exists in the short term. Higher resistance levels for the day appeared in the $2658 and $2677-2678 regions, and breaking through these levels may indicate that the recent pullback has basically ended, paving the way for further upward space for bulls to reach the psychological level of $2700.

On the other hand, if the gold price falls below the key support level of $2600, it may face further downward pressure, increasing the possibility of reaching a monthly low of $2536 at $2570 (100 day simple moving average, SMA) or lower. At present, the volatility indicators show weak signals on the hourly and daily charts, indicating that the market still needs to wait for more certainty breakthroughs.

However, given the low trading volume caused by the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, the gold market may remain cautiously volatile in the short term. Weak trading volume may amplify the volatility of market prices, while also making investors pay more attention to the key economic data to be released next week and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, in order to find a clear direction for future trends.

Expectation

From the current situation, the price of gold will seek direction in the game of long and short forces in the short term. On the one hand, strong US economic data and a strengthening US dollar may put pressure on gold prices; On the other hand, safe haven demand and potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve will still provide support for gold. On the technical chart, the gold price needs to break through the initial resistance of $2638-2639 to confirm further upward trend. At the same time, the gains and losses of the $2600 support level will determine whether the market will experience a larger pullback.

In the medium term, the trend of the gold market will depend more on further performance of US economic data, the direction of Federal Reserve policies, and the development of geopolitical situations. Investors need to closely monitor key events in the coming weeks to determine whether the dominant forces of long and short in the gold market have fundamentally changed.