On Monday (December 9th), US crude oil rose slightly during the Asian trading session, trading around $67.40 per barrel. Last Friday, oil prices fell sharply and closed near their lowest point, mainly due to the downward trend in global demand expectations, putting pressure on oil prices.

But after the release of US non farm payroll data, the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has heated up. According to FedWatch, a trading report on federal funds rate futures shows that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90%, which provides some support for oil prices.

At present, the daily box level of US crude oil has not fallen below, and the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation over the weekend has once again fermented, leading to a rebound in oil prices. The medium-term outlook is still not optimistic.

In the short term, we will continue to observe whether the pressure brought by the geopolitical situation on the supply side supports the sustained rebound of oil prices. Fundamentally, we will continue to pay attention to changes in inventory data and whether the pressure on the demand side has eased. This week, we will focus on the US CPI data.

Goldman Sachs maintains Brent oil price forecast at $76 per barrel in 2025

Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 at $76 per barrel on Friday, citing a balanced market situation and a reduction in supply from OPEC+countries offsetting the unexpected surge in commercial inventories in OECD countries last month.

We maintain our forecast for Brent annual average oil prices of $76/barrel and $71/barrel, as well as a range of $70-85 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, "the investment bank said.

OPEC+, consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied countries including Russia, postponed the start of oil production increase by three months until April on Thursday.

The investment bank stated that the main factors contributing to this decision were: Brent oil prices have fallen to around $70-75 this year; Due to refinery maintenance, crude oil inventories tend to increase in the first quarter; And the uncertainty of the impact of the new Trump administration on the balance of the global oil market.

Goldman Sachs currently predicts that by the end of 2025, Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply will increase to 9.25 million barrels per day, and OPEC+will increase production for four consecutive months starting from July.

The investment bank predicts a moderate surplus of 400000 barrels per day by 2025, as the increase in non OPEC supply (mainly from the United States, Canada, and Norway) almost offsets the decrease in supply from OPEC and Russia.

Morgan Stanley has raised its Brent oil price forecast for the second half of 2025 from $66-68 per barrel to $70 per barrel.

Morgan Stanley has lowered its production forecast for the nine OPEC countries in 2025 (excluding Iran, Libya, and Venezuela, which are not subject to production restrictions) by 400000 barrels per day, and has lowered its production forecast for the fourth quarter of next year by 700000 barrels per day.

It also lowered Iran's production forecast for 2025 by about 100000 barrels per day. Overall, this reduces our estimate of excess liquid fuel from 1.3 million barrels per day to 800000 barrels per day in 2025, and the estimate of excess pure crude oil from 700000 barrels per day to 300000 barrels per day

HSBC stated in a statement on Friday that it maintains its forecast of Brent crude oil prices at $70 per barrel for 2025 and beyond. It is expected that if OPEC+continues to increase production as planned in April, there will be a surplus of 200000 barrels per day in the oil market by 2025.

Prior to this, it was expected that the oil market would have an excess of 500000 barrels per day. Bank of America predicts that assuming there is no significant increase in OPEC+production by 2025, Brent oil prices will average $65 per barrel.

Syrian President Bashar al Assad was overthrown by opposition armed groups and fled by plane, but his whereabouts are unknown

After more than 13 years of civil war, Syrian opposition armed groups seized control of the capital Damascus on Sunday, announcing the overthrow of President Bashar al Assad. Bashar was forced to flee, ending decades of rule by his family and marking a shocking moment in the Middle East.

This also dealt a heavy blow to the influence of Bashar al Assad's allies Russia and Iran in the Middle East region. Iranian English news television reported on Sunday that Syrian rebels stormed into the Iranian embassy after capturing Damascus.

A Syrian military officer stated that the Syrian Army Command notified its subordinate officers on Sunday that Bashar's rule has ended. But the military later stated that it is continuing its operations against "terrorist organizations" in important cities such as Hama and Homs, as well as in rural areas of Daraa.

Since the sudden advance of the rebels a week ago, Bashar has not made any public speeches. Two senior military officers stated that Bashar left Damascus by plane earlier on Sunday and his whereabouts are unknown. Bashar and his wife and children are still missing.

The Syrian rebel alliance stated on Sunday that it is continuing efforts to complete the transfer of Syrian power to a transitional management body with full administrative authority.

Witnesses said that thousands of people gathered in a major square in Damascus by car or on foot, waving their hands and shouting "freedom" to break free from the half century rule of the Assad family.

A Türkiye security source said that the Syrian army supported by Türkiye had controlled about 80% of the land in the Mambiji region in northern Syria and was close to winning the victory over the local Kurdish armed forces.

The Syrian civil war broke out in 2011 as an uprising against Bashar al Assad's rule. After years of stalemate, Islamic rebels affiliated with Al Qaeda suddenly launched a lightning attack, posing the greatest threat to Bashar al Assad.

The speed of the rebel advance has surprised Arab authorities and raised concerns about a new round of regional unrest.

This marks a turning point in Syria, where years of war have turned cities into ruins, hundreds of thousands of people have died, and millions have been forced to flee abroad as refugees.

Daniel Shapiro, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs, stated on Sunday that the United States will continue to maintain its presence in eastern Syria and take necessary measures to prevent the resurgence of ISIS.

On a technical level, the daily test box for US crude oil is supported by the lower edge of the box, but it has not fallen below, and the price is close to the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands. However, the KDJ indicator is still oscillating at a low level, and there is a possibility of a rebound correction near the short-term box support of $66.50.

Daily chart of US crude oil