On Wednesday (December 11th), US crude oil continued to rise during the Asian session, trading around 69.01 yuan/barrel. Yesterday's API inventory data showed that in the week ending December 6th, crude oil inventories increased by 499000 barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 2.85 million barrels, and distillate oil inventories increased by 2.45 million barrels.

The market expects a slight increase in EIA inventory data, while concerns about the geopolitical situation seem to have failed to provide more support for oil price bulls. The current rebound is mainly due to the recovery of global demand expectations and the gradual increase in expectations of the Federal Reserve's December interest rate cut, which provides some support for oil prices.

Before the short-term US crude oil daily chart breaks through the box pressure, we will maintain a range treatment and wait for the pressure test. This trading day, we will focus on the changes in EIA inventory data.

The United States is considering imposing new oil sanctions on Russia, possibly similar to restrictions on Iranian oil

The Biden administration is considering imposing new and stricter sanctions on Russia's lucrative oil trade, seeking to strengthen sanctions against Russia just weeks before Trump returns to the White House. Details of possible new measures are still being developed.

But according to anonymous sources, Biden's team is considering possible restrictions on some of Russia's oil exports.

Biden has long resisted this measure due to concerns that it could trigger a surge in energy costs, especially on the eve of last month's presidential election.

But as the global oil supply surplus leads to a decline in oil prices, people are increasingly concerned that Trump may seek to force Ukraine and Russia to quickly reach an agreement to end the nearly three-year war, and the Biden administration is now open to taking more aggressive action.

These deliberations highlight the Biden team's willingness to take risks in confronting Russia as it prepares to leave, especially with mixed results from previous efforts to curb Kremlin energy revenues, with average gasoline prices in the United States hitting their lowest level since mid-2021.

In the last few weeks, the government also increased military and financial support for Ukraine due to doubts about whether Trump promised to continue providing American support.

The United States has banned the import of Russian oil, but the implementation of new restrictions on the export of one of the world's largest producers (which may involve foreign buyers of its crude oil) will subvert the policy formulated more than two years after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which will begin in February 2022.

Insiders say that the US government is still considering imposing new sanctions on Russian oil tanker fleets used for transporting oil. Insiders say that new restrictions on the so-called Shadow Fleet may be announced in the coming weeks.

The EU is planning to take similar measures against Russia's shadow fleet before the end of this year. It is expected that the group will also target individuals involved in the trade.

One model of broader US sanctions could be to impose restrictions similar to those on Iranian oil, which could lead to skyrocketing oil prices and global economic tensions.

Economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 18th, with a pause in interest rate cuts in January

Last Friday's data showed that the US job market continued to cool, but remained relatively resilient, consolidating expectations that the Federal Reserve would have the ability to cut interest rates again before evaluating government policies early next year.

Jonathan Millar, a senior US economist at Barclays, said, "Despite robust income and employment growth, the employment report shows more idle, so we still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December.

In a Reuters survey conducted after the employment data was released, 93 out of 103 economists expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting on December 17-18, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.25% -4.50%.

10 respondents believe that interest rates will remain unchanged. The trend of interest rate futures is consistent with the survey results, almost completely digesting the 25 basis point interest rate cut in December.

However, 58 out of 99 economists predict that the Federal Reserve will remain inactive at its meeting on January 28-29, as the Fed has cumulatively lowered the federal funds rate by 75 basis points since September.

Economists have not yet reached a clear consensus on what actions the Federal Reserve will take in the future.

EIA Short term Energy Outlook Report: It is expected that the WTI crude oil price in 2024 will be $77/barrel, compared to the previous expectation of $77/barrel. The expected WTI crude oil price in 2025 is $69 per barrel, compared to the previous expectation of $72 per barrel.

The expected Brent crude oil price in 2024 is $81 per barrel, compared to the previous expectation of $81 per barrel. The expected Brent crude oil price in 2025 is $74 per barrel, compared to the previous estimate of $76 per barrel.

It is expected that the US crude oil production in 2024 will be 13.24 million barrels per day, compared to the previous expectation of 13.23 million barrels per day. It is expected that the US crude oil production in 2025 will be 13.53 million barrels per day, compared to the previous expectation of 13.53 million barrels per day.

Technically speaking, US crude oil is still in a rebound structure, but it should be noted that the daily moving average is still below the 55 day moving average. Therefore, if the rebound cannot break through the $70 integer mark, it will still be a box oscillation.

The current good change is that the MACD indicator has once again crossed the golden cross, and the intraday rebound structure has been continued, mainly waiting for stress testing.

Daily chart of US crude oil