On Friday (December 13th), US crude oil slightly fell during the Asian trading session, trading around $69.94 per barrel. Fundamentally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated on Thursday that although OPEC+will extend production cuts until April 2025, its current outlook still shows a daily surplus of 950000 barrels in the oil market next year, equivalent to nearly 1% of global production.

At the same time, the US dollar index continues to rise, putting short-term pressure on oil prices to rebound. Currently, it is still within the box and consolidating around the 55 day moving average. We need to be cautious of a second retracement and wait for further changes in fundamentals. We will continue to pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 94.7%, compared to 98.6% the day before

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping current interest rates unchanged until December is 5.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 94.7%.

The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until January next year is 4.1%, the probability of reducing interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively is 73.7%, and the probability of reducing interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 22.3%.

At present, the market has fully priced the expectation of the Federal Reserve's December interest rate cut, so the stimulating effect on oil price bulls is not strong. We are wary of the possibility of buying expectations and selling facts.

Goldman Sachs predicts that if Brent crude oil prices fall to the range of over $50 per barrel by the end of 2025

The growth rate of shale oil supply in the United States in 2025 will drop to below 100000 barrels per day, which in turn will push up Brent crude oil prices by $8 per barrel in 2025.

Goldman Sachs stated that, given the almost offsetting effect between the moderate surplus of 400000 barrels per day and the normalization of current undervaluation, it is expected that the average price of Brent crude oil will be $76 per barrel by 2025.

Affected by the strong growth of Permian crude oil production and the continuous strengthening of natural gas condensate, shale oil production (crude oil and natural gas condensate) in 48 states of the United States will steadily increase by 600000 barrels per day.

We found that when the price of Brent crude oil falls to $60, the supply response from the United States will increase, which supports our bottom price of $70 per barrel for Brent crude oil, while OPEC tends to extend production cuts near the current price level.

Military officials: preparing for possible further attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities

Israeli military officials stated on the 12th local time that as Iran's proxy group in the Middle East weakens and the Assad regime in Syria steps down, the Israeli Air Force is preparing for possible attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities.

The Israeli military believes that an isolated Iran may further advance its nuclear program. Currently, the Israeli Air Force has destroyed the vast majority of Syria's air defense systems and believes there is an opportunity to launch an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

International Energy Agency: Despite increased demand, oil market will still have sufficient supply by 2025

The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated on Thursday that even with OPEC+extending production cuts and slightly higher than expected demand forecasts, the global oil market will still have ample supply in 2025.

The IEA stated that despite OPEC+extending production cuts until April 2025, its current outlook still shows a daily surplus of 950000 barrels in the oil market next year, equivalent to nearly 1% of global production.

The lower than expected growth in oil demand this year is largely due to the fact that major Asian countries, after years of driving oil consumption growth, are facing various economic challenges and a shift towards electric vehicles that are weakening the prospects for oil demand growth in Asia.

Nevertheless, the IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 from 990000 barrels per day last month to 1.1 million barrels per day in its monthly oil market report, "mainly in Asian countries due to the impact of recent stimulus measures".

Technically speaking, the current US crude oil daily chart is running around the 55 day moving average, and the MACD is still within the bullish range. Structurally, the direction selection is mainly waiting for consolidation, and the daily chart retraces to support around $69.20.