Morgan Stanley stated that due to oversupply in the market, it is expected that oil prices will fall to around $70 per barrel next year.

Morgan Stanley announced in a report on Monday (July 22) that the current oil market supply is tight, maintaining a price range of $80 per barrel, but as seasonal demand begins to weaken in the fourth quarter, the market will return to balance.

Morgan Stanley analysts wrote that by the fourth quarter of 2024, the market will reach equilibrium "when seasonal demand weakens and OPEC and non OPEC supply resumes growth.

The bank's commodity strategist believes that with the increase in supply from OPEC+and non OPEC+oil producing countries, there may even be a surplus in the market next year.

The bank stated that the operation of global refineries will reach its peak in 2024 in August and is expected to reach this level again in July next year.

That's why Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude oil prices to drop from current levels to around $70 per barrel by 2025.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its forecast for Brent crude oil prices of $86 per barrel in the third quarter of 2024 in its report.

Goldman Sachs recently reiterated its expectations since June

Due to strong consumer demand, Brent crude oil prices will rise to $86 per barrel this summer, which will create a significant supply gap in the market in the third quarter.

OPEC+representatives told Bloomberg last week that OPEC+'s oil market monitoring group, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), is not expected to recommend any modifications to the organization's current production policy plan in August.

According to anonymous sources from Bloomberg, when the group convenes again on August 1st, it is expected to be a regular meeting and no recommendations are expected to be released except for the oil production policy already announced by OPEC+.

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