After US President Joe Biden withdraws from the 2024 presidential election and fully supports Vice President Kamala Harris, the 'Trump deal' may be reversed.

Biden's performance in the debate is worrying, coupled with the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, which has led to market expectations that Trump will once again take office in the White House.

The 'Trump trade' refers to stock trades that are expected to benefit from Trump's return to the White House.

CNBC previously reported that Wall Street believes Trump's victory is beneficial for the stock market as the Republican candidate calls for tax cuts and relaxed regulation. On the contrary, traders predict that Trump's proposed tariff hike will have an impact on green energy stocks, which some economists say could lead to higher inflation.

After Biden announced the launch of the US presidential election, Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Australian brokerage Pepperstone, told CNBC that Biden's withdrawal was largely expected amid increased pressure from the Democratic Party and a "disastrous debate performance".

Brown said that due to the uncertainty of the election, the volatility of asset classes will increase, and he predicts that the US dollar will weaken as some Trump trades are reversing. At the same time, he believes that the prospect of the Democratic Party winning the election has slightly increased

He also expects stocks to decline in the short term, but points out that any decline should be seen as a medium-term buying opportunity, as the Federal Reserve may still cut interest rates while the economy and profit growth remain strong. The United States will report its second quarter data on the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, on Thursday.

David Roche, President of Quantum Strategy, stated in a report on Monday morning (July 22) that Harris may gain support from the Democratic Party, stating that "replacing Harris at this time would cause greater chaos and raise many questions about the existing Biden Harris joint campaign funding

However, Roche stated that Harris' nomination increases Trump's chances of winning the election, but reduces the Republican Party's chances of winning both houses of Congress.

A brand new campaign situation

In contrast, Charles Myers, founder and CEO of consulting firm Signum Global Policy, holds a different view on Harris' possible nomination.

In an interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia," Meyers stated that Harris, as the leader of the Democratic nomination, made the campaign situation "completely different.

There is a new candidate who has tremendous unity and passion behind her. She will be an important driving force for women, young people, and black voters... I think people will underestimate her, "he added.

Harris has made history by becoming the first female and first black vice president. If she wins the Democratic nomination, she will become the second woman after Hillary Clinton in 2016 to receive the presidential nomination from a major party.

Meyers said, "I think it's too early for the market to claim Trump's victory. I think she will bring him a real challenge

Like Brown, Meyers also stated that the Trump deal faces risks in the short term.

Meyers said that when the Democratic National Convention begins on August 19th, Harris will choose a running mate and predict that she will "win the nomination with great momentum," surpassing Trump in the polls as the vice president.

It has performed quite well in many stocks and other asset classes related to Trump's victory, but there is still some time before the election, and the campaign situation is completely chaotic... I will be very cautious and assume that Trump will win smoothly.