On Thursday (February 13th) during the European trading session, WTI crude oil experienced a rapid decline. At 18:00 Beijing time, WTI crude oil was reported at $70.42 per barrel, a decrease of 1.33%.

Fundamentals

Trump hinted that Russia and Ukraine may reach a peace agreement to mitigate oil hedging risks.

Despite Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the oil market is digesting the prospect of slowing demand, pushing oil prices back to the key support level of $70, close to the four-year average price.

The core CPI in the United States has reached a 10 month high, while the monthly and annual CPI rates have reached 17 month and 7-month highs, respectively. The Federal Reserve has hinted that it will not rush to cut interest rates, putting pressure on oil prices.

OPEC maintains its forecast for oil demand in 2025 and 2026, unchanged from previous assessments.

Technical Analysis of WTI Crude Oil Prices

The WTI crude oil price had previously fallen below $75.00, experiencing a significant drop, at one point falling below the levels of $73.00 and $72.00, until bulls entered the market.

From the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen below multiple moving averages such as the 100 cycle simple moving average and the 200 cycle simple moving average. The current price is above the downward trend line.

Previously, the price briefly rose above $71.50 and $72.00, and broke through the key downward trend line on the 4-hour chart (resistance level of $72.20). The price briefly broke through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which dropped from a high of $80.76 to a low of $70.87.

On the upward side, the price encountered resistance around $73.50, with the main resistance level in the $74.00 area and near the 100 cycle simple moving average. If it breaks through this level, the price may accelerate its rise. In this case, the price may further test the resistance level of $75.80 and even potentially challenge the resistance zone of $78.00.

On the downside, if it continues to decline, oil prices may test the support level of $68.00 in the coming days.