Looking back at the market, gold failed to form a continued decline yesterday, but rebounded after a low-level correction. In the evening, it was not able to form a continuation due to the impact of the US President's Day off, and the trend process was relatively small. The short-term trend is more indicative of the constraint of bulls, and a mainstream correction failed to break the sustained short-term gains.

It's not just a pullback that changes direction. The uptrend has been rising for so long, and a large bearish dip has dominated many people's speculation about the top. When the market reaches its peak, it turns around and gold is about to plummet. Many people unanimously believe this. So is the market really at its peak and going to decline. In fact, it is not the case, it is still viewed as maintaining the upward trend.

Why is it so certain that the market has not turned around? From the perspective of the market, the news of negotiations on the Russia Ukraine war over the weekend has spread widely, and people believe that the war is coming to an end and the negotiations will be resolved peacefully. Once the war is resolved through peaceful negotiations, it will inevitably create negative factors for gold, so gold is about to fall. So if you interpret it literally like this, you are completely wrong. Little do you know, even if it is a peaceful solution, it cannot be said that a few news negotiations will end. This is a war, not a fight, and there must be an explanation for reconciliation in a fight. Besides, this is a war that has been fought for several years. Don't think too unilaterally about things. For a simple example, in plain language, it takes several rounds for two people to fight and push each other back and forth. To reconcile, there needs to be an intermediary, and back and forth, one party needs to compromise and the other party needs to invest in order to reconcile. Generally speaking, targeted wars cannot be resolved in a short time through negotiation with Trump. So the crisis still hasn't been resolved, and it will take at least a long time to negotiate back and forth before a settlement can be reached!

Regarding market news, we cannot take a one-sided view, nor can we be truly certain. Instead, we should flexibly consider the substantive nature to determine the future expected trend of the market. We need to continuously monitor and consider the fundamental trend direction in response to such news.

From the perspective of trend structure, the decline of gold to the 2882 line area did not form a downward trend, and it continued to rebound and rise after the shadow line was explored in the early stage. Currently, there are obvious signs of the market falling back to a key position. The failure to fall but rebounding indicates the volatility and uncertainty of the market, and the market is more likely to withdraw back and forth from both sides. Therefore, in the short term, without forming a continuation after the downward decline, the trend structure has not changed, and the retreat still maintains the direction of the trend structure. The market still considers the increase, and short-term retreats focus on the key positions below, with short-term cycles mainly following the main rhythm of the market layout.

Overall, in the short term of the gold market, if the upward trend is under pressure and falls back, the key position below is the reference point for the short-term first position. If the decline breaks through the effective downward extension and stops, then we still believe that the upward trend will continue. There is still a large gap above 2900, so the upper investors should participate more and pay attention to the support of the 2882 line at the key position for point reference. Next is the daily closing small positive line yesterday, and pay attention to the high probability expectation of a continued positive closing line for this trading day.