The game and peace dilemma of US Russia talks in the absence of Ukraine, with hidden fluctuations in gold prices

2025-02-19 2031

On Tuesday (February 18th), for the first time, the United States and Russia held talks in Saudi Arabia to end the Ukrainian war without Ukraine's participation, which attracted widespread attention from the international community. This meeting not only broke Washington's previous strategy of isolating Russia, but also exposed the profound differences between the two sides on the Ukraine issue. Russia has put forward stronger demands, while the United States is attempting to seek a permanent solution to the conflict through negotiations. However, the absence of Ukraine and European countries has made this meeting controversial, and the prospects for peace remain shrouded in fog.

Background and content of the meeting:

The United States and Russia held a four-and-a-half-hour meeting in the Saudi capital to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine. This is the first time that US and Russian officials have sat together to discuss the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II. Russia insisted during the talks that it would not tolerate NATO accepting Ukraine as a member state and made stronger demands.

Prior to the talks, some European politicians accused the Trump administration of making unconditional concessions to Moscow, the United States ruled out the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, and said that Kiev's belief that it could regain the 20% of territory currently occupied by Russia was a fantasy. US National Security Advisor Waltz stated that the war must end permanently, which will involve negotiations on territorial and security issues. US Secretary of State Rubio also stated that the high-level team will begin negotiations to end the conflict and work to restore diplomatic missions on both sides to facilitate further negotiations.

International reactions and positions:

Ukraine has stated that it will not accept any agreement without its consent, and German Chancellor Scholz has also emphasized that "no decision regarding Ukraine can be made without Ukraine's consent".

Ukrainian President Zelensky even postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia to avoid giving "legitimacy" to the US Russia talks. Kiev insists that any talks about ending the war should not be held without Ukraine's participation.

Russia's tough stance and the United States' compromise posture

Russia has shown a tough stance during the talks, not only demanding that NATO abandon its commitment to Ukraine's future accession at the 2008 Bucharest Summit, but also opposing any form of NATO military deployment. The United States has shown a certain compromise posture, ruling out the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO and implying that territorial issues will become part of the negotiations. Both US National Security Advisor Waltz and Secretary of State Rubio have stated that peace requires concessions from all parties, but Russia has not mentioned any concessions.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova stated that it is "not enough" for NATO not to accept Ukraine as a member state, and NATO must abandon its commitment made at the Bucharest Summit in 2008 for Kiev to join NATO in the future. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov further emphasized that Moscow will not accept NATO's deployment of troops in Ukraine, no matter what banner they use. These remarks indicate that Russia will continue to pressure other parties to make more concessions in the negotiations.

Results of the talks and future prospects:

Russia has not mentioned making any concessions, and US officials have not claimed to have achieved any results in the talks, which makes observers doubt whether the talks will turn into serious peace negotiations. Both sides have stated that a date for Trump's meeting with Russian President Putin has not been determined yet, but Trump has expressed confidence in the progress of negotiations and may meet with Putin before the end of this month.

Analysis of the impact on gold prices:

The outcome of the US Russia talks and its impact on the situation in Ukraine may cause changes in market demand for safe assets, thereby affecting gold prices. If the talks lead to a easing of the situation, it may reduce the safe haven demand for gold; On the contrary, if the situation becomes tense or negotiations break down, gold prices may rise due to rising risk aversion. In addition, Russia's tough stance in negotiations and the attitude of Western countries towards sanctions may also have a chain reaction on the global economy and financial markets, further affecting the trend of gold prices.

summary

The first meeting between the United States and Russia was held in the absence of Ukraine, exposing the profound differences between the two sides on the Ukrainian issue. Russia's tough demands are in stark contrast to the United States' compromise stance, while the absence of Ukraine and European countries has raised doubts about the legitimacy of this meeting. Although both sides have expressed their willingness to seek peace, the initial results of the talks are limited, and the prospects for peace remain uncertain. In the future, Ukraine's participation and coordination with the international community will be the key to resolving conflicts.

Although the talks between the United States and Russia aim to seek a peaceful solution, the process and outcome are full of uncertainty. This uncertainty may have a significant impact on gold prices, and investors need to closely monitor subsequent developments in order to make corresponding investment decisions.

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