On Monday, March 3rd, before the European market opened, the US dollar against the Swiss franc traded around 0.9020, with a slight consolidation in the exchange rate. Overall, the weak performance of the US dollar has led to a decline in the US dollar against the Swiss franc. Recently, market sentiment has tended to be cautious, with a focus on the upcoming release of US economic data, including the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI report, which is expected to provide further guidance for the US dollar trend.

Fundamental analysis:

Currently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to around 107.25, highlighting the overall weakness of the US dollar trend. Recently, the market has gradually priced in the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates within the year. Currently, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points each before the end of this year (a total of 50 basis points). The change in interest rate expectations puts pressure on the trend of the US dollar, causing it to fall against major non US currencies including the Swiss franc.

On the other hand, the uncertainty of the international situation continues to intensify, and geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia have once again escalated. Analysts believe that this situation will undoubtedly provide support for the safe haven currency, the Swiss franc. The latest news indicates that Trump announced over the weekend that he had decided to cancel a mineral agreement originally scheduled to be signed due to disrespectful remarks by Ukrainian President Zelensky. This agreement could have been a potential positive factor in easing the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, but its failure has increased the uncertainty of regional conflicts. The market's risk aversion sentiment has risen accordingly, and the demand for safe haven in the Swiss franc has increased, putting significant pressure on the US dollar against the Swiss franc.

In summary, the weak performance of the US dollar coupled with rising risk aversion sentiment is not conducive to the performance of the US dollar against the Swiss franc exchange rate due to the fundamental situation. Recently, the market has been paying special attention to the upcoming release of the US ISM manufacturing PMI data, which may become an important driving factor for the short-term market. At the same time, if geopolitical risks sharply rise, the Swiss franc may further strengthen.

Technical analyst interpretation:

From a technical chart analysis, the daily trend of the US dollar against the Swiss franc is relatively complex, but it shows clear bearish signals. From the perspective of the moving average system, the current exchange rate is suppressed by the upper 50 day moving average (MA50), which is at 0.9054 and an important resistance level in the short term. After several unsuccessful attempts to break through MA50 in recent times, the exchange rate has clearly fallen, indicating significant selling pressure and limited bullish rebound power.

The MACD indicator line is below the zero axis, while the DIFF line (-0.0018) and DEA line (-0.0016) are both negative, reflecting a weakening of the exchange rate in the short to medium term. Meanwhile, the green bar of MACD failed to effectively cross the zero axis and turn red, indicating a lack of market rebound momentum and a weak technical form.

In addition, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) value is around the neutral range of 50, but the overall trend of the index is slightly downward, indicating that the short-term long and short forces are relatively tight but weak. If the RSI index continues to decline and break through 45, it will further confirm the strengthening of the bearish trend in the market.

Overall, based on the daily trend, the rebound of the USD/CHF exchange rate is weak, and the trend bearish signals are gradually strengthening. If it is not possible to effectively break through the important resistance area around 0.9050-0.9060 in the short term, bears may initiate a new round of downward trend. The initial support level is focused on around 0.8980. Once this position is breached, the target below will point to the obvious low point around 0.8911, and further key support will be around 0.8870, which will be an important long short watershed in the medium term.

Taking into account the fundamental and technical factors mentioned above, there is a high probability that the overall trend of the US dollar against the Swiss franc will weaken in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the guidance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the further evolution of the Russia Ukraine situation to promote safe haven sentiment. If safe haven sentiment continues to rise, the potential for the appreciation of the Swiss franc may further expand.