As the US Canada trade dispute continues to escalate, Canadian Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson issued a warning on Tuesday (March 11) that if the trade war with the US escalates further, Canada may take non-tariff measures, including restricting oil exports to the US or imposing export tariffs. This statement not only highlights Canada's strategic position in the energy sector, but also indicates that the trade war between the two countries may enter a new stage.

1、 Canada's Counterattack Options: Energy and Key Minerals

Wilkinson stated in an interview with Reuters that Canada is considering a series of non-tariff retaliatory measures, including restricting energy and mineral supplies, or imposing export tariffs on related products. He also mentioned that measures targeting key minerals may force the United States to rely more on China. This statement indicates that Canada not only relies on traditional tariff measures in the trade war, but may also use its advantages in the energy and resource sectors to counterattack.

2、 Strategic Position of Canadian Petroleum

Canada is the largest oil supplier to the United States, delivering approximately 4 million barrels of oil per day to refineries in the Midwest region. These refineries are specifically designed to process Canadian heavy crude oil, making Canadian oil an irreplaceable source of energy supply to the United States. Wilkinson emphasized that although restricting oil exports may have some impact on Canadian producers, the United States will also face serious supply disruptions.

3、 Mediation and Challenges in Alberta Province

Alberta Energy Minister Brian Jean expressed his hope to ease the dispute through negotiations and proposed multiple solutions to Washington. However, Canada has limited options for oil exports, and restricting exports to the United States would directly harm the interests of domestic producers. Nevertheless, Wilkinson believes that the uniqueness and irreplaceability of Canadian oil puts it in a relatively advantageous position in the trade war.

4、 Ethanol tariffs: Canada's potential counterattack

Wilkinson also mentioned that if Trump continues to escalate the trade war, Canada may impose tariffs on US ethanol and include it in the second batch of trade retaliation lists. Ethanol is an important export product for American farmers, and US ethanol exports to Canada have recently reached a historic high. Due to subsidies for renewable fuel standards in the United States, ethanol prices are lower than in Canada, making ethanol a potential target for Canada's counterattack.

conclusion

The statement from the Canadian Minister of Energy indicates that if the US Canada trade war escalates further, Canada will use its advantages in energy and key mineral sectors to counterattack. Measures such as restricting oil exports and imposing ethanol tariffs will not only have an impact on the US economy, but may also force the US to reassess its trade policy towards Canada. However, this game is a double-edged sword for both sides, and Canada also needs to weigh its own economic interests when taking action. In the future, whether the two countries can resolve disputes through negotiations will determine the direction of this trade war.

If Canada restricts its oil exports to the United States, it will push up oil prices in the short term, especially US WTI crude oil prices, and may also lead to a decline in Canadian crude oil prices. In the medium to long term, the market will gradually restore balance through supply and demand adjustments, but this process may be accompanied by fluctuations in oil prices and regional price differentiation. In addition, the rise in oil prices may exacerbate inflationary pressures and pose a challenge to global economic recovery. The ultimate impact will depend on the specific policy implementation in Canada and the United States, as well as the response of the global market.