Despite US President Trump's warning of potential tariffs on Russian oil buyers, international oil prices remained slightly under pressure on Monday (April 1). As of 10:27 am Beijing time, Brent crude oil futures for delivery in June fell 0.45% to $72.44 per barrel; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil in the United States fell 0.43% to $69.05. The Brent crude oil contract fell 0.48% to $73.28 in recent months, but will expire on the same day.

Although the two major benchmark crude oils closed down last Friday, the weekly chart still recorded a third consecutive week of gains. The monthly performance is almost flat, while the quarterly performance may record its first decline in two quarters, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards the global demand outlook.

Trump threatens to impose tariffs on Russian oil buyers: market response lukewarm

Trump said on Sunday (March 31) that if he believes Russia is hindering his efforts to end the Ukraine war, he may impose a secondary tariff of 25% to 50% on Russian oil buyers. He expressed frustration with Putin and hinted that new measures may be implemented within a month.

However, the market's response to this threat is limited. Nomura Securities economist Yuki Takashima pointed out, "Trump's remarks should have pushed up oil prices, but the market's doubts about their feasibility, coupled with OPEC+'s upcoming production increase, have kept investors on the sidelines

OPEC+production increase plan becomes the focus

OPEC+(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia) plans to gradually increase oil production from April. Reuters reported last week that the alliance may continue to relax production cuts in May and further increase supply. This expectation partially offsets the support of geopolitical risks on oil prices.

Takashima expects US crude oil to remain volatile in the $65-75 range in the short term, as the market continues to assess the impact of Trump's tariff policies on global oil supply and the economy, as well as OPEC+production adjustments.

Short term outlook: Demand concerns suppress oil prices

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, the market is more concerned about the potential impact of slowing global economic growth and increased OPEC+supply. If Trump's policy of imposing tariffs on Russian oil buyers is officially implemented, it may boost oil prices in the short term, but in the long run, weak demand may still limit the increase. Investors are closely monitoring the next steps of OPEC+and the actual impact of potential trade measures by the United States on the energy market.