Faced with the Trump administration's aggressive tariffs, the European Union is adopting a dual track strategy of "negotiation+counterattack". The European Commission announced on Monday (April 8) that while proposing a "zero to zero" automobile tariff agreement as a gesture of goodwill, it has confirmed that the first batch of precise countermeasures will be launched next week, demonstrating its game wisdom of "promoting talks with peace and ending wars with war".

The shadow of steel tariffs hangs over Europe

Currently, the 27 EU countries are facing the threat of a 25% import tariff on steel, aluminum, and automobiles. What's even more severe is that from Wednesday onwards, almost all goods imported to the US will be subject to a 20% "equivalent" tariff. This is one of the series of crackdown policies by the Trump administration against so-called 'trade barrier countries'.

Prioritize negotiations to reach consensus among member states

At the emergency EU trade ministers' meeting held in Luxembourg, most member states explicitly listed negotiating the lifting of tariffs as their top priority. Trade Executive Shevchovich revealed that the "zero tariff" proposal with Washington is still in its early stages, covering automobiles and other industrial products, but US trade advisors have publicly refuted the related ideas promoted by Musk.

The countermeasure schedule has been officially finalized

The EU will not wait indefinitely, "said Shevchovic, announcing that countermeasures will be taken in two steps: the first batch of tariffs will be implemented on April 15th, and the second batch will be implemented on May 15th. The total value of affected US goods is controlled within 26 billion euros, and an import transfer defense mechanism is established.

The arsenal is fully on standby, and the EU explicitly reserves all means of retaliation:

Upgrade countermeasures against automobile tariffs to be introduced before the end of April

Activate Anti Coercion Tool (ACI) to Combat US Service Trade

Restricting US companies from participating in EU public procurement

The French trade minister strongly supports this strategy, but countries such as Ireland that have close economic ties with the United States warn that ACI is an "extreme nuclear option".

【 Summary 】

In this transatlantic trade game, the EU has demonstrated a delicate strategic balance: one hand holds high the olive branch of "zero tariffs" to fight for negotiation space, and the other hand clenches the iron fist of countermeasures to build defensive fortifications. As the Polish representative emphasized the principle of proportionality, Brussels is walking a tightrope between protecting the single market and avoiding a full-scale trade war with a flexible combination of punches. The battle between steel and wisdom has just begun.

If the US European tariff war escalates, market risk aversion may heat up, leading to capital outflows from eurozone assets and putting selling pressure on the euro. If progress is made in the "zero tariff" negotiations: an improvement in market risk appetite may drive a rebound in the euro, especially if the EU demonstrates a strong but rational response capability, the euro may receive bargain hunting.