International crude oil prices have been hit hard again, and market concerns about a global economic recession are increasing. On Tuesday, Brent crude oil futures fell $1.39, or 2.16%, to close at $62.82 per barrel, while US crude oil futures fell $1.12, or 1.85%, to close at $59.58. This is the first time since 2021 that both major oil price benchmarks have fallen below key support levels.

During the Wednesday session, US crude oil prices have been consistently declining, falling below $57 during trading. There may be a possibility of oversold rebound after short-term acceleration, but caution should be maintained until the bearish trend changes.

The escalation of global trade conflicts has become a core factor in suppressing oil prices. The US government announced a 104% tariff on goods from Asian countries starting from this Wednesday, as the country did not cancel its retaliatory 34% tariff on US goods before the deadline. White House officials have stated that the US will enforce a new round of punitive measures.

Market analysis suggests that global trade conflicts pose a systemic threat to global energy demand. StoneX's Director of Market Strategy, Alex Hodes, pointed out that "the global economy is sliding towards the brink of recession, which is a direct blow to energy demand expectations

Goldman Sachs has lowered its medium - to long-term expectations for oil prices in its latest report. Its forecast shows that in the benchmark scenario of sustained economic slowdown, Brent crude oil prices may fall to $62 per barrel in December 2025, and US crude oil prices may drop to $58. One year later, it is more likely to further drop to the levels of $55 and $51.

In addition, although the news of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran briefly boosted sentiment, it did not reverse the overall downward trend. Trump announced in a sudden statement that the US and Iran will engage in dialogue regarding their nuclear program. However, the Iranian Foreign Minister quickly responded, "The dialogue will be indirect and there are many uncertainties

The market has not adjusted its risk expectations for Middle Eastern crude oil supply due to this news.

The demand side data also did not bring any improvement signals. According to market research, the inventory of crude oil and distillate oil in the United States may have increased by 1.6 million barrels each last week, which strengthens the market judgment of "weakened consumption". The American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release specific inventory data on Wednesday, and if the increase is confirmed, it will further intensify the pressure of crude oil selling.

Editor's viewpoint:

Against the backdrop of deteriorating geopolitical and economic fundamentals, the crude oil market is experiencing a typical "macro pessimism+supply-demand mismatch" trend, and oil prices may maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The current prices of Brent crude oil and US crude oil have both fallen below the 2021 level, and the market will closely monitor whether the global trade dynamics will further upgrade.

At the same time, maintain high sensitivity to global inventory and consumer data to prevent volatility risks.