The latest warning from the National Retail Federation (NRF) shows that due to the comprehensive imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration, the import volume of the United States in the second half of 2025 may sharply drop by 20% year-on-year. This astonishing prediction far exceeds previous expectations - before the tariff policy was introduced in April, NRF had expected imports to increase by 5.7% in the first half of the year, but the latest data shows that container imports in the first half of the year have decreased by 2.9% year-on-year. If the trend continues, the total freight volume for the whole year of 2025 may decrease by more than 15%.

The end of the "rush to run" import trend

NRF supply chain expert Jonathan Gold revealed that retailers had been aggressively stocking up in advance for months to avoid tariff shocks, but with the implementation of new tariffs and "equivalent tariffs" on China on Wednesday, this emergency strategy has come to an end. Nowadays, major businesses are forced to shift to a wait-and-see mode of consuming inventory.

Container shipping faces the dual challenges of ice and fire

Data shows that the import volume of 20 foot containers in the first half of 2025 is expected to be 11.73 million boxes, a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, which is in stark contrast to the growth expectations at the beginning of the year. Research firm Hackett Associates warns that freight volume may experience a "free fall" decline in the second half of the year.

The US retail industry enters a 'strategic contraction'

Nowadays, retailers are like stepping on a sudden brake, "Gold described. The industry generally adopts the "inventory dependence" strategy and suspends new orders to evaluate the impact of policies. This conservative stance may continue for several months, further exacerbating the decline in imports.

Summary: Market wait-and-see under policy uncertainty

The current retail industry in the United States is facing severe challenges. With the comprehensive implementation of tariff policies, businesses generally adopt a conservative strategy and temporarily suspend new orders to observe the direction of the policy. The NRF report points out that unless there is a trade policy adjustment, this import contraction trend may continue for a long time. In the absence of clear policy prospects, both the US supply chain and consumer market will continue to face pressure, and the final costs are likely to be passed on to businesses and consumers.