According to Refinitiv, the global trade war has reached a critical turning point! US President Trump suddenly personally intervened in the US Japan tariff negotiations and announced significant progress, a rare move that attracted market attention.

The President personally supervises the sudden change in the negotiation pattern

The negotiations on Wednesday were originally just a regular ministerial meeting, but Trump's sudden appearance completely changed the rules of the game. This president, known for his "art of trade," not only personally met with Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade and Development, Ryohei Akazawa, but also made high-profile claims on social media that he had made "significant progress. It is worth noting that the Trump team has expanded the scope of negotiations from simple trade issues to sensitive areas such as military spending and exchange rate policies, demonstrating a comprehensive pressure stance.

Japan is caught in a strategic dilemma

As the first Asian country to engage in face-to-face negotiations with the United States, Japan is facing a difficult decision. Although Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has stated that he will not easily make concessions, the Trump administration clearly hopes to use the "first mover advantage" to establish a negotiation model. What's even more tricky is that the additional conditions proposed by the US, such as investment in the Alaska natural gas project, have turned this trade negotiation into a comprehensive game involving energy and military. On the one hand, Japan denies the accusation of currency manipulation, and on the other hand, it wants to avoid exacerbating conflicts, putting its diplomatic wisdom of walking a tightrope to a severe test.

Chain reaction of Asian allies

With the breakthrough in the US Japan negotiations, Asian economies such as South Korea and Vietnam are closely monitoring the development of the situation. US Treasury Secretary Vicente has invited South Korean Treasury Secretary to the US next week, while Italian Prime Minister Meloni will also meet with Trump on EU tariffs. Analysts point out that the Trump administration may be building a "tiered tariff system" that implements differentiated policies based on the degree of concessions made by different countries. This' divide and conquer 'strategy may reshape the global trade landscape.

summarize

This high-level game between the United States and Japan not only concerns the economic and trade relations between the two countries, but may also become a barometer of the global trade war. When Trump personally enters the negotiations, countries around the world need to reassess their response strategies. The outcome of the negotiations will determine the direction of the Japanese yen, with short-term volatility rising. In the medium to long term, attention needs to be paid to whether the US and Japan have reached a "hidden agreement" on exchange rate issues. Investors need to be wary of the drastic fluctuations caused by policy changes.

If there is a stalemate in the US Japan negotiations or Trump takes a tougher stance, market risk aversion may push up the yen (a traditional safe haven currency). If a compromise is reached, Japan may promise to expand its investment in the United States (such as energy projects) or adjust its trade policy in exchange for tariff exemptions, and the yen may weaken moderately (due to a rebound in risk appetite).