Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said, "The claim that a recession is imminent in the United States seems absurd

BlackRock also agrees with his viewpoint, stating that concerns about the US economic recession are somewhat excessive. This asset management company believes that the July US employment report is more in line with an economic slowdown rather than a recession. BlackRock pointed out that job creation in the United States is slowing down, but an average of 170000 jobs have been created in the past three months; Although consumer spending is cooling down, it is still relatively healthy. So far, the company's profits in the second quarter have exceeded expectations.

The seasonally adjusted non farm payroll in the United States increased by 114000 in July, far below the previous value of 179000. After the poor employment report quickly intensified people's concerns about the US economic recession, traders bet that there is a 70% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points more than usual. However, the market currently believes that the possibility of a significant interest rate cut by Federal Reserve officials at their September meeting has dropped to 58%.

The latest data released by the US Department of Labor shows that as of the week ending August 3, the number of first-time jobless claims decreased by 17000, to 233000 after seasonal adjustment, the lowest level in 11 months. This number is lower than the 240000 predicted by economists. Last week's data showed an unexpected significant increase in the number of initial jobless claims, which is a welcome reversal.

However, economists warn against overinterpreting the latest report on initial jobless claims, which means the Federal Reserve may still cut interest rates significantly.

LPL Financial Chief Analyst Jeffrey Roach said, "Investors must be careful not to interpret a report too much, as they recently did with the previous employment report. If the data deteriorates rapidly from now on, the Federal Reserve may take more decisive action in September, cutting interest rates by 50 basis points.

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, stated that nowadays, the oil market is more focused on the state of the US economy and largely ignores the fundamentals of supply and demand. Therefore, the re-election of Republican candidate Trump as the President of the United States may not be a bad idea. Last Thursday, Trump stated that the President of the United States should have a say in the decisions of the Federal Reserve, which was his clearest hint that if he were to return to the White House, he could infringe upon the independence of the Federal Reserve.

That is to say, Trump's influence on the decisions of the Federal Reserve may only bring short-term benefits. Economists point out that such a path may lead to a repeat of the situation during the tenure of Federal Reserve Chairman Burns in the 1970s. Before the 1972 election, despite evidence of inflationary pressures accumulating, Burns was pressured by then President Nixon to maintain an expansionary monetary policy. As a result, by 1974, the inflation rate in the United States had skyrocketed to 12%, a problem that lasted for 10 years until Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker significantly raised interest rates, triggering two economic recessions in the early 1980s.

Despite positive economic signals, the oil market remains cautious due to the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

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