On Monday (August 12th), gold prices rose ahead of the release of key US economic data later this week. As of press time, spot gold has been continuously rising, reaching the $2470/ounce mark at one point, nearly $50 higher than the intraday low. COMEX gold futures rose to $2509 per ounce, up 1.45% for the day. As the Japanese yen fell by more than 1%, the Bloomberg US dollar spot index rose by 0.1%. Platinum, palladium, and silver prices have also risen.

At present, traders are concerned whether these data will strengthen their expectations of the Federal Reserve's upcoming shift towards monetary easing.

After experiencing a 0.5% decline last week, gold is currently trading at a price close to $2470 per ounce. Investors are preparing for the release of the US Producer Price Index data on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday, which will reveal the inflation situation in the world's largest economy.

Although CPI data is expected to show an increase in price increases in July, the annual rate indicator should continue to rise at a slow pace. The recent easing of price pressure has boosted the confidence of policy makers, who believe that they can start reducing borrowing costs while turning their attention to the labor market showing more signs of cooling.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bauman said last Saturday that she still sees risks of rising inflation and continued strength in the labor market, suggesting that she may not be prepared to support a rate cut in September. Higher borrowing costs are usually unfavorable for gold as it does not pay interest.

Gold has risen nearly 19% this year and is approaching its historical high from last month. In addition to the expectation of interest rate cuts, firm central bank purchases and strong demand from Chinese consumers have also supported gold prices.

The escalating tensions in the Middle East have also increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven asset.

According to a report by Saxo Bank A/S on Monday, gold is still "supported by geopolitical risks and expected Fed rate cuts," involving tensions in Iran, Israel, and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, weekly data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that fund managers' net long bets on gold have reached their lowest point in five weeks.

It is worth noting that according to a survey by the New York Federal Reserve on consumer expectations, the one-year inflation expectation for July was 2.97%, slightly lower than last month's 3.02%. The median inflation expectation for the next three years has dropped significantly by 0.66% to 2.3%, hitting a low point since the survey began in June 2013. The New York Federal Reserve stated that people's perception of credit access has worsened in July compared to a year ago, with a report indicating an increase in the proportion of households facing greater difficulty in obtaining credit than a year ago. In addition, consumers expect gasoline prices to rise by 3.46% next year, food prices to rise by 4.67%, medical expenses to rise by 7.61%, university education costs to rise by 7.15%, and rent to rise by 7.14%.

At the same time, American consumers are increasingly concerned about bill arrears, with the proportion of respondents expecting repayments to be overdue rising to the highest level since the outbreak of the pandemic. According to a survey released by the New York Federal Reserve on Monday, the average likelihood of consumers not being able to pay the minimum repayment amount in the next three months is 13.3%, the highest level since April 2020. People with an annual income below $50000 and a high school diploma or below have the greatest repayment pressure. The survey shows that compared to a year ago, respondents' views on the difficulty of obtaining credit have worsened, and their expectations for household expenditure growth have dropped to the lowest level in over three years.

Spot Gold Daily Chart