On Tuesday (August 13th) during European trading, spot gold prices fell from Monday's high of $2473 per ounce to around $2460 per ounce. This decline is mainly due to traders locking in profits before the release of key inflation data in the United States. However, this fluctuation in gold prices has not changed its overall upward trend. On Monday, the escalating tensions in the Middle East drove demand for gold as a safe haven asset, resulting in a rise of over 1% in gold prices.

The tense situation in the Middle East, especially the conflict between radical organizations supported by Israel and Iran, has brought uncertainty to the gold market. Iran's response to the assassination of Haniya and the United States' warning of a possible "major" attack by Iran have intensified market risk aversion. In addition, the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is expected to decrease from 3% to 2.9%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI is expected to decrease from 3.3% to 3.2%, which may provide further clues for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.

Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the tense relationship between Israel and radical organizations supported by Iran, will continue to affect market sentiment. In addition, the release of US inflation data may affect the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve, thereby affecting gold prices.

Technical analysis

Senior analyst Dhwani Mehta pointed out in his latest technical analysis that although gold prices have fallen, as long as the 21 day moving average ($2421/ounce) can provide support and the relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart remains bullish, investors can still consider "buying on dips". Mehta emphasized that if the gold price falls below the 21 day moving average, it may release further downward space, with short-term support at $2380 per ounce, which is the confluence of the lower edge of the triangle and the 50 day moving average.

Mehta suggests that if the gold price can break through the current symmetrical triangle resistance level ($2475/ounce), it may further rise to the historical high of $2484/ounce, testing the $2500/ounce mark.

Financial writer Robert Kiyosaki criticized the actions of the Federal Reserve in his podcast and suggested that investors consider assets such as gold and silver as a means of protecting personal wealth. He emphasized that these assets are outside the system and are not directly affected by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, and can serve as an "insurance policy" against current monetary policy.

Taking into account both fundamental and technical analysis, as well as the perspectives of analysts and institutions, the gold market has demonstrated its unique market dynamics under the dual influence of geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations. Investors should closely monitor upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments when formulating trading strategies.