On Thursday (August 15th) during the European trading session, oil prices rose slightly, partially recovering from Wednesday's losses, as traders bet on the possibility of a US interest rate cut to boost economic activity and fuel demand. However, due to concerns about the continued weakness of global demand, especially from China, the market still faces pressure.

WTI crude oil was reported at $77.49 per barrel, an increase of 0.66%.

Speculation of US interest rate cut sparks optimism

The recent data has strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut, which could stimulate the US economy and increase demand for crude oil. Consumer prices in the United States rose moderately in July, and the annual inflation rate fell below 3% for the first time in nearly three and a half years. The easing of inflation has strengthened the reasons for the September interest rate cut, and traders are already digesting this measure.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 0.2% month on month and 2.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than the expected 3% year-on-year increase. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI also increased by 0.2% compared to June, which is in line with expectations.

EIA report unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories, which has also put pressure on oil prices. As of the week ending August 9th, US crude oil inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels, in sharp contrast to the expected decrease of 2.2 million barrels. This is the first increase since the end of June, indicating that US demand may not be as strong as expected, exacerbating bearish sentiment in the market.

The uncertainty of global demand limits the increase

Concerns about global demand continue to limit the potential for oil price increases. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently lowered its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025, and OPEC has also lowered its demand growth forecast for 2024.

Market forecast: bearish outlook prevails

Although speculation of a US interest rate cut has provided some support, the overall outlook for oil prices remains bearish. Continued concerns about weak global demand and unexpected increases in US crude oil inventories may put pressure on oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is expected to reach the $72 mark in the coming weeks, with significant upward potential only in the event of unexpected escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart

On Thursday, WTI crude oil futures trading prices rose, but fell below the 50 day moving average of $78.09. This price is a new resistance level, and this move also indicates that the momentum in the middle has turned downward.

Restarting the 50 day moving average will mark the return of buyers. This may lead to a retest of this week's high of $80.16 for oil prices.

At the same time, a sustained drop below the 50 day moving average may lead to a significant drop in the exchange rate below the pivot point of $75.91, followed by the 200 day moving average breaking into $75.48.