International oil prices weakened in the Asian market early on Monday (August 19), hovering around a low for over a week. US crude oil September futures are currently trading at $76.37 per barrel, and Brent crude oil is currently trading around $79.47 per barrel. Concerns about weakened demand from the world's largest oil importing country have put pressure on market confidence. At the same time, investors are paying attention to the progress of ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East, which may reduce supply risks.

Brent crude oil futures fell $1.36, or 1.7%, last Friday to close at $79.68 per barrel. US crude oil September futures fell $1.51, or 1.9%, on Friday to close at $76.65 per barrel. But last week's weekly chart was mostly flat, as a series of US data showed a slowdown in inflation and strong retail spending.

Continued concerns about sluggish demand from major Asian countries have led to selling, "said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, President of NS Trading." However, the supply risks brought about by tensions in the Middle East and the escalation of the Russia Ukraine war still support the market.

Data released by major Asian countries last Thursday showed that their economic momentum weakened in July, with new house prices falling at the fastest pace in nine years, industrial output slowing down, and unemployment rates rising.

This exacerbates traders' concerns about the decline in demand from major Asian countries, as refineries in these countries significantly reduced their crude oil processing rates last month due to weak fuel demand.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year last Monday due to economic weakness in major Asian countries. The International Energy Agency (IEA), headquartered in Paris, lowered its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 last Tuesday, citing weak demand from major Asian countries.

Andrew Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates, an energy consulting firm, said: 'This has been a turbulent week in the oil market: on the one hand, people are concerned that the expansion of the Middle East war will cause supply disruptions, and on the other hand, the slowdown in economic growth in major Asian countries has forced relevant institutions to revise their demand forecasts.'.

At the same time, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv on Sunday (August 18) to start another trip to the Middle East to promote a ceasefire in Gaza. But just hours after his arrival, Hamas accused Israel of undermining his mediation efforts.

The mediator countries - Qatar, the United States, and Egypt - have been unable to narrow enough differences to reach an agreement after months of intermittent negotiations, and the violence in Gaza on Sunday has continued to escalate.

The new round of Gaza ceasefire negotiations began in Qatar last Thursday. The negotiations are currently suspended and scheduled to resume this week, with mixed signals from all parties regarding the progress of the negotiations.

In addition, according to the Lebanese National News Agency, the Israeli Defense Forces carried out airstrikes on multiple locations in southern Lebanon on the 18th, causing casualties. Hezbollah militants claimed to have attacked Israeli spy facilities and other targets. The Israeli military stated that they attacked multiple targets, including the arsenal of Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. According to the Lebanese National News Agency, the Israeli military launched multiple rounds of attacks on several towns on the Lebanese side of the temporary border between Lebanon and Israel on the 18th. Among them, an attack by the Israeli army on a motorcycle in southern Lebanon resulted in one death. Hezbollah in Lebanon claimed to have launched direct strikes on multiple targets, including Israeli spy facilities and strongholds in Saba'a Farms and other areas, on the same day.

The expectation of the Jackson Hole Economic Seminar to be held by the Federal Reserve on August 22-24 may dominate market sentiment this week.

The speeches of global central bank officials at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Economic Seminar, the initial purchasing managers' index (PMI) values of major economies, and the quoted interest rates (LPR) of major Asian lending markets will determine the trend of financial markets this week.

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will be held from August 22nd to 24th, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook on Friday. As US inflation weakens but remains sticky, and the job market weakens, Powell may signal imminent easing, but is unlikely to endorse sustained expectations of significant interest rate cuts.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting on July 30-31, which opened the door for interest rate cuts, will be released on Wednesday (August 21). Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will deliver speeches, with key data to be released including weekly initial jobless claims, August S&P global PMI preliminary values, and July sales of existing and new homes.

In Europe, the final value of the Eurozone's July Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and current account data will be released on Tuesday, while the August PMI and consumer confidence data will be released on Thursday. The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting, and the Swedish central bank will announce its monetary policy decisions.

The economic events in the UK are relatively light, and the only thing worth paying attention to is the initial PMI value for August. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give a speech in Jackson Hole on Friday, and he may provide policy clues after mild inflation data stimulates September interest rate cut bets.

This week, Japan released initial trade and PMI data, as well as the national July Consumer Price Index (CPI). After last week's GDP data showed that consumption increased for the first time in five quarters, supporting the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike, CPI may play a key role.

After an unexpected downward adjustment in July, the one-year and five-year loan market quoted rates (LPR) in major Asian countries are likely to remain unchanged on Tuesday. However, last month, new house prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years.

This trading day, pay close attention to news related to the geopolitical situation and speeches by Federal Reserve officials.

From a technical perspective, Brent crude oil has continued to decline after being suppressed by strong resistance from both the 200 day moving average and the 55 day moving average. Currently, it has fallen below all moving averages, and the technical signal is biased towards short positions. In the short term, it may further explore the support near the August 8th low of 77.63; Pay attention to the resistance near the 5-day moving average of 80.17 above.

Brent crude oil daily chart