On Monday (August 19th) during the European trading session, the EUR/USD rose slightly before being blocked, with a intraday price of 1.1034/35, up 0.07%. WTI crude oil was reported at $74.72 per barrel, a decrease of 1.09%.

Due to the weakness of the US dollar, the euro/dollar rose to its 2024 high, while the US dollar fell to a 7.5 month low against major currencies. It is expected that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will signal the start of interest rate cuts this week. Concerns about demand have led to a decline in oil prices. The following is an analysis of Euro/USD and WTI crude oil futures.

EUR/USD rose to 1.1050, which is the high point for 2024

Due to market speculation that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will signal a rate cut in his speech later this week, the US dollar fell to a 7.5 month low against major currencies at the beginning of the new week.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to give a speech at the Jackson Hole Conference on Friday, where he is expected to confirm that interest rates are falling. Starting from here, the debate may shift from 'Will they' to 'How far will the Federal Reserve go?'

The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting will be released on Wednesday, and before Jerome Powell's speech on Friday, the minutes may provide more clues about the outlook for the Fed's interest rates.

Last week's data showed that the US inflation rate was in line with expectations, dropping to 2.9%, the lowest level in three years.

At the same time, the euro is also rising, reaching a new high since the beginning of the year, and market sentiment has also improved.

The data released by the eurozone last week was mixed, as the ZEW economic confidence index for Germany and the entire eurozone had both declined. However, the Eurozone GDP confirmed a moderate growth of 0.3%

The minutes of the European Central Bank meeting will be released this week, which may provide further clues about the pace of the ECB's planned interest rate cuts after a 25 basis point cut in June.

The euro remains strong as the market expects the European Central Bank to gradually lower interest rates without pre committing to a specific interest rate path.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD daily chart

The euro/dollar has risen above 1.10 and has exited an upward channel towards its 2024 high. Supported by RSI above 50 and breaking through the 200 moving average to form a golden cross, buyers will seek to expand their returns to 1.11 (integer) and 1.1140 (high point in December 2023).

On the other hand, support levels are seen at 1.10 (psychological level) and 1.0970 (upward trend line support level).

Worries about demand lead to a decline in oil prices

Oil prices fell on Monday (August 19th) due to investors' concerns about weak demand in some parts of the world, progress in ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East, and the upcoming end of the peak driving season in the United States.

Recent global data has raised concerns among traders about a decline in demand.

In addition, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv this weekend to advocate a ceasefire in Gaza, which may reduce the risk of oil supply.

The market will closely monitor the development of the situation. So far, Qatar, the United States, and Egypt have failed to narrow their differences in reaching an agreement in Gaza. The violent incident on Sunday continues.

WTI Crude Oil Technology Analysis

油价在向阻力位80.00进发，这里是100移动均线和重要心理关口所在位置。此前油价跌破了200移动均线和77.00水平。RSI低于50，让卖家有进一步下跌的希望。

支撑位见于本周最低价74.50。在此下方，支撑位在71.70-72.50区域，即8月和6月的低点。

在上行方面，买家需要重新收复77.00和200移动均线78.00，才能向80.00回升。