创纪录的日元空头增加了日元剧烈而痛苦反弹的可能性fxcue.com

【fxcue】-日元兑美元反弹的风险越来越大，因为押注日元将走软的交易员头寸已达到创纪录水平。中东紧张局势加剧，加上市场猜测日本可能干预汇市以支撑日元，令投资者面临平仓套利交易的压力。这些交易包括廉价借入日元，将资金投入收益率较高的资产。截至4月16日，杠杆基金和资产管理公司押注日元走软的合约增至逾17.3万份，为美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC) 2006年数据以来的最高纪录。根据彭博社的计算，这也是九种主要货币中最大的空头头寸，这使得日元特别容易受到反弹的影响。随着投资者抛售大量套息交易头寸，墨西哥比索本月大幅下挫，可以看出太多投资者集中于一种货币头寸的风险。日本与美国之间巨大的收益率差距，导致日元兑美元汇率上周跌至约34年来的最低点，促使日本官员警告称，他们可能会在外汇市场采取行动。东京市场风险咨询公司(Market Risk Advisory)研究员深谷浩司(Koji Fukaya)在一份研究报告中写道:“日元抛售头寸已累积至较高水平，因为投资者相信，日本和美国的货币政策将暂时保持不变。”“如果美国经济的疲软在数据中变得明显，市场波动加剧或风险厌恶情绪加剧，日元可能会反弹，所有这些都很难预测。”随着美元持续走高，美国、日本和韩国在上周发布的三方声明中表示，他们将继续就外汇市场的发展进行密切磋商。他们还承认，日本和韩国对本国货币最近大幅贬值表示严重关切。由于预期美联储将推迟开始降息的时间，美元面临升值压力。相比之下，日本央行今年3月自2007年以来的首次加息未能提振日元，因为市场认为日本央行只会逐步加息。自美联储于2022年3月开始大举加息以来，外国银行在日本向其主要办事处发放的贷款——这是日元融资套利交易需求的一个关键指标——一直处于高位。美联储加息扩大了日本和美国之间的政策分歧。东京三井住友银行（Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.）的首席货币策略师铃木博文（Hirofumi Suzuki）说:“日元因平仓而升值的风险正在逐渐增加。但是，由于美联储不太可能在短期内降息，很难看到这样的头寸调整。”

创纪录的日元空头增加了日元剧烈而痛苦反弹的可能性

前日本财务省最高货币官员称：日本“非常接近”干预汇市

摩根大通首席市场策略师科拉诺维奇称：美国股市的“修正”尚未结束

贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官认为美联储今年有可能降息两次

日本央行料将按兵不动因日元贬值增加了鹰派信号的可能性

Meta股价在盘后交易中暴跌19% 市值挥发2000亿美元

高盛股价超过2021年以来的收盘高点创下历史新高

创纪录的日元空头增加了日元剧烈而痛苦反弹的可能性

美元持续强势给市场敲响了警钟

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12/27 Gold Day Short term Strategy Reference:1. First fall back, first see around 2623. Short buy again, lose 2615, target at 2643-2655-2673! 2. Rush high for the first time. Short sell at any time around 2655-58, with a loss of 2660. Target at 2643-2633-2623!

Buy long for spot gold at 2628 or 24, and sell short when it first rises close to 2644 or 2654. Last night, buy long around 2621 and sell short around 2639. Crude oil prices have increased from over 70 to 70.7, but short selling around 71 has not been achieved.

Buy near gold 2622, protect 2612, target 2634-2642;

Today's spot gold is in the short-term range of 2640-2620; Low absorption and high selling within the range; If it stabilizes at 2640-2645, it is necessary to buy long in the short term with a bullish trend; 2640-2645 is the position of the strong weak boundary point;

Today's spot gold operation is considering a pullback layout, with buying long orders as the main strategy and short selling high as a supplement. The upper focus is on the resistance of $2640-2657, and the lower focus is on the support of $2622-2613.

Last Friday's long gold trading took profit, and today's two short selling transactions also took profit, perfect

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创纪录的日元空头增加了日元剧烈而痛苦反弹的可能性

前日本财务省最高货币官员称：日本“非常接近”干预汇市

摩根大通首席市场策略师科拉诺维奇称：美国股市的“修正”尚未结束

贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官认为美联储今年有可能降息两次

日本央行料将按兵不动 因日元贬值增加了鹰派信号的可能性

Meta股价在盘后交易中暴跌19% 市值挥发2000亿美元

﻿高盛股价超过2021年以来的收盘高点 创下历史新高

创纪录的日元空头增加了日元剧烈而痛苦反弹的可能性

美元持续强势给市场敲响了警钟

Please sign in

Trader

12/27 Gold Day Short term Strategy Reference:1. First fall back, first see around 2623. Short buy again, lose 2615, target at 2643-2655-2673! 2. Rush high for the first time. Short sell at any time around 2655-58, with a loss of 2660. Target at 2643-2633-2623!

Buy long for spot gold at 2628 or 24, and sell short when it first rises close to 2644 or 2654. Last night, buy long around 2621 and sell short around 2639. Crude oil prices have increased from over 70 to 70.7, but short selling around 71 has not been achieved.

Buy near gold 2622, protect 2612, target 2634-2642;

Today's spot gold is in the short-term range of 2640-2620; Low absorption and high selling within the range; If it stabilizes at 2640-2645, it is necessary to buy long in the short term with a bullish trend; 2640-2645 is the position of the strong weak boundary point;

Today's spot gold operation is considering a pullback layout, with buying long orders as the main strategy and short selling high as a supplement. The upper focus is on the resistance of $2640-2657, and the lower focus is on the support of $2622-2613.

Last Friday's long gold trading took profit, and today's two short selling transactions also took profit, perfect

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日本央行料将按兵不动因日元贬值增加了鹰派信号的可能性

高盛股价超过2021年以来的收盘高点创下历史新高