At the beginning of the Asian market on Tuesday (November 26), spot gold continued Monday's decline and hit a new low of $2605.34 per ounce at one point. Gold prices plummeted by over 3.3% on Monday, breaking five consecutive trading days of gains and recording the largest single day percentage decline since June 7th. Earlier in the session, it hit a nearly three week high before turning downwards. It was reported that Israel was close to a ceasefire with Hezbollah, weakening the safe haven appeal of gold; In addition, Trump's nomination of Beckett as US Treasury Secretary has reversed the 'Trump deal'. From a technical perspective, if it falls below the 2600 level, the market may further decline towards the 100 day moving average of 2565.

Later this week, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting, GDP data, and core PCE price index will be released. Analysts have pointed out that after a sustained rebound in gold prices over the past week, buying has dried up and experienced selling, with some bulls taking profits on important data and before Thanksgiving, which has also significantly dragged down gold prices.

An Israeli official told The Times of Israel that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has accepted the final ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The official stated that Netanyahu believes Israel has no choice but to accept a ceasefire because he is concerned that the Biden administration may punish Israel through a United Nations Security Council resolution in the last few weeks of its term, although the United States has given no indication that it will do so.

Four senior Lebanese sources said that US President Biden and French President Macron are expected to announce a ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel within 36 hours.

According to media reports, Biden and Macron will announce a 60 day ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel on Tuesday.

In Washington, White House National Security spokesman John Kirby said, 'We are close,' but 'nothing is done until everything is done.'.

The French Presidential Office stated that significant progress has been made in ceasefire negotiations. In Jerusalem, a senior Israeli official stated that the Israeli cabinet will meet on Tuesday to approve a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah.

At the same time as signs of diplomatic breakthrough emerged, Israel launched large-scale airstrikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut controlled by Hezbollah.

The office of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu refused to comment on reports that Israel and Lebanon have reached an agreement on the text of a ceasefire agreement. But senior Israeli officials told Reuters that Tuesday's cabinet meeting aimed to approve the text.

US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated that the differences between the two sides have significantly narrowed, but further compromises are still needed to reach an agreement. The final stage of an agreement is often the most difficult because the most challenging issues are left until the end, "he said." We are doing our best

In Beirut, Lebanese Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab told Reuters that there are "no major obstacles" to implementing the US proposed ceasefire with Israel "unless Netanyahu changes his mind".

He said that the debate over who should supervise ceasefire compliance has been resolved in the past 24 hours, and all parties have agreed to establish a committee consisting of five countries, including France, chaired by the United States.

The US State Department stated on Monday that "the US hopes to reach an agreement on the Lebanon issue, but requires' mutual agreement ', and is making every effort to push for a diplomatic solution on the Lebanon issue. I believe we are close to reaching an agreement, although success is not guaranteed. We have expressed our concerns to Israel about the escalation of violence in Beirut and have seen a decrease in these attacks. Israel's approach is crucial as we remain concerned about the potential escalation of this conflict and actively promote diplomatic solutions to end the conflict. It is not yet believed that an agreement has been reached with Lebanon. The gap has significantly narrowed, but further measures are still needed. I will not provide details regarding the role of the United States in monitoring the agreement, as we have not yet reached a final agreement

However, the White House also stated that "we will continue to support Ukraine, and despite the intermediate range ballistic missile attack in the Dnipro region of Ukraine, the nuclear situation will not fundamentally change

Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities, stated that the appointment of Treasury Secretary at Besant has further weakened some of the risk premiums associated with the United States. Moreover, it has been reported that Israel and Lebanon have reached an agreement on the terms of an agreement to end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, further driving down the price of gold

UBS Group analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that some market participants believe that the negative impact of Besent on the trade war is relatively small.

Although the US dollar index and US Treasury yields fell on Monday, they failed to provide support for gold prices as the reason for the decline was also due to Trump's nomination of Besant, which reduced concerns about trade conflicts. At the time of Trump's election victory, due to concerns about intense trade conflicts, gold prices rose in sync with US dollar and Treasury yields, known as the "Trump trade". Currently, the "Trump trade" seems to be reversing.

Additionally, although traders consider Besant to be a seasoned Wall Street veteran and a fiscal conservative. However, he has also publicly supported a strong US dollar and tariffs, indicating that any drop in the exchange rate could be short-lived.

I think this is an exaggerated reaction. We still don't know how much power the White House has, and how much power the Cabinet has, "said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York." I don't think we really know a lot about what we didn't know on Friday. I think this is more about market positioning than the policies of the new government.

Traders are also preparing for a crucial week, anticipating that the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting, the revised US gross domestic product (GDP), and the core personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) will provide clues to the Fed's policy outlook.

Federal Reserve's Gulsby said on Monday that he expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates to achieve the goal of neither restricting nor promoting economic activity.

Gulsby said, "Unless there is convincing evidence that the economy is overheating, I believe there is no reason not to continue lowering the federal funds rate

He said, "The speed of interest rate cuts depends on the outlook and conditions. But in my opinion, we are on a clear path that will lead to a decrease in interest rates, closer to neutral rates

His prediction for the neutral interest rate is close to the median estimate of officials, which is 2.9% of the September forecast. Gulsby said that the overall situation in recent months has been that inflation has often been lower than expected, but not far above the 2% target.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane also stated on Monday that the European Central Bank should not maintain monetary tightening policy for too long, otherwise inflation may fall below target levels, while praising the bank's gradual approach to interest rate cuts.

This statement indicates that the European Central Bank is increasingly confident that it has contained the most severe high inflation in at least a generation, but may not be ready to accelerate the pace of policy easing.

The European Central Bank has already cut interest rates three times this year, but given weak economic growth and rising recession risks, investors now believe there is a 50% chance that the central bank will cut interest rates by 50 basis points on December 12th instead of the usual 25 basis points.

Lian En seemed to pour cold water on this speculation on Monday, stating that the European Central Bank's "cautious approach" has benefited greatly from it.

Lian En said at a meeting of the Bank of England in London, "This cautious approach is rooted in the principle of gradualism, emphasizing the need for gradual progress when the impact of our actions on the economy is uncertain

Relatively speaking, the market's expectation of global central bank interest rate cuts in the past few months has provided strong upward momentum for gold prices, and currently the market expects the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, which is also one of the reasons for the volatility and weakness of gold prices.

From a technical perspective, there is still further downside risk for gold prices in the short term. Pay attention to the 2600 level and the position near the 100 day moving average of 2665.60, and pay attention to the resistance near the 2640 and 55 day moving averages of 2655.90 above.

This trading day needs to pay attention to the annual total number of new housing sales in the United States after the quarterly adjustment in October, focusing on the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting and news related to geographical situation.

Daily chart of spot gold