Gold: Short term correction, long-term strength remains unchanged

2025-01-14 1978

Last Friday, after the international gold price surged to $2700, it came under pressure near the 100% mark, and then the market price entered a correction. After opening at a high and sideways level this week, the market continued to adjust and turned negative on Monday. However, in yesterday's market, we highlighted two support points, one being the support level of 2680 top bottom transition, which also played a role as scheduled, and the gold price rebounded after touching this level. The other is the support of 2665 mentioned in the evening live broadcast, which was also verified by touching the 2665-2663 area in the evening session. The gold price rebounded at this position, with a margin of around ten dollars each time, but both rebounds did not form an effective upward trend, and the evening session briefly fell to the 2656 level.

The main reasons for the short-term correction of gold in this round are as follows:

One reason is that a survey by the New York Federal Reserve shows a one-year inflation expectation of 3%, which is too high for interest rate futures traders to price. This year, the Fed's interest rate cut is less than 25 basis points, reducing the possibility of interest rate cuts and thus exerting a certain pressure on gold prices, as interest rate cuts usually push up gold prices;

Secondly, foreign media reported that the Trump team is studying raising tariffs to 2% -5%, which is significantly different from the 20% -50% mentioned by Trump before. This means that the tariff barriers after Trump took office are not as strong as expected, which is a positive signal for the global economy and weakens the safe haven demand for gold;

Thirdly, there have been reports of breakthrough progress in the ceasefire agreement negotiations in Gaza. Qatar has submitted the final draft of the agreement to Israel and Hamas, and Hamas officials have stated that they are very close to reaching a ceasefire agreement with Israel. US National Security Advisor Sullivan believes that a Gaza agreement may be reached this week, which further weakens the risk aversion of regional conflicts and has a certain inhibitory effect on the rise of gold.

From the daily trend, since 2583, the gold price has shown a spiral upward trend. Although there have been multiple pullbacks during the trading session, there has been no double negative situation. From this, it can be seen that after the correction of today's trading day, the market price is expected to return to a strong rhythm. Within the day, we can continue to use the correction of bullish bulls.

After yesterday's bottoming out and rebound, today's market focuses on the support level of 2665. If the Asian market retraces and does not break through the support level of 2665, you can continue to buy long. The defensive line is set at yesterday's low of 2656. Under normal circumstances, non extremely weak market conditions will not experience a retracement and breaking through the low. Overall, although gold is in a short-term correction stage this round, the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The correction is only a short-term adjustment action, and investors do not need to fear adjustment. Instead, the adjustment provides new opportunities for friends who missed the opportunity to get in the car.

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