On Friday (January 17th), US crude oil rose slightly during the Asian trading session, trading around $78.20 per barrel and still within the bullish range. On the one hand, maritime security officials predict that as Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, Houthi militants will stop attacking Red Sea ships.

This expectation has led to a easing of the regional situation and a reduction in the security premium in oil prices. On the other hand, the December retail sales data in the United States showed strong economic demand, which led investors to believe that the Federal Reserve would be more cautious about cutting interest rates this year, resulting in an expansion of the decline in oil prices.

However, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that inflation may continue to ease and the Fed may cut interest rates earlier and faster. This trading day, it is important to pay close attention to the weekly closing situation, while also monitoring whether the US dollar index maintains its strength and exerts pressure on commodities.

The United States says Gaza ceasefire should start as planned on Sunday, although there are still issues to be resolved

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday that although negotiators need to resolve "outstanding issues" at the last minute, the ceasefire in Gaza should start on Sunday as planned.

Due to long-standing and significant differences among ministers, Israel has postponed the cabinet meeting to approve the ceasefire agreement with Hamas. Media reports suggest that the vote may take place on Friday or even Saturday, but the agreement is expected to be approved.

Israeli warplanes launched the most fierce attack on Gaza in months, but Israel still accuses Hamas of delaying the ceasefire. The Palestinian Authority stated that at least 86 people have lost their lives within a day since the announcement of the ceasefire agreement.

Hamas senior official Izzat el Reshiq stated that Hamas remains committed to the ceasefire agreement, which is scheduled to take effect on Sunday to end the 15 month long bloody conflict.

"In such a challenging and tense negotiation process, it is not surprising that there may be problems to deal with," Antony Blinken said at a press conference in Washington, D.C. "At the moment of the conversation, we are cleaning up the situation."

An anonymous US official stated that both sides are making smooth progress in eliminating last-minute obstacles. He said, 'I think it will be okay.' The official had previously stated that the only remaining controversy was the identity of some of the prisoners that Hamas wanted to release.

The official said that the envoys of President Biden and President elect Trump are currently in Doha, working with mediators from Egypt and Qatar to resolve the issue. Under the mediation of Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, a ceasefire agreement was reached on Wednesday.

The agreement outlines the key points of a preliminary six week ceasefire, and the Israeli army will gradually withdraw. Dozens of hostages held hostage by Hamas will be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.

  Houthi leader Abdul Malik al Houthi said his organization will monitor the ceasefire situation and will continue to launch attacks if the ceasefire is disrupted.

Israel will not formally accept the agreement until it is approved by the security cabinet and government. The vote was originally scheduled for Thursday, but Prime Minister Netanyahu postponed the meeting, accusing Hamas of making a last-minute demand.

Netanyahu's office stated that "the Israeli cabinet will not hold a meeting until the mediator notifies Israel that Hamas has accepted all the contents of the agreement." Israeli media reports indicate that the cabinet is expected to vote on Friday or Saturday, but the Prime Minister's office is unwilling to provide an opinion on the timetable.

The retail sales in the United States increased by 0.4% in December, lower than expected. The retail sales in November were revised upwards to increase by 0.8%.

Although the growth rate is not satisfactory, it still demonstrates a certain intensity of demand in the US economy. The car sales performance is impressive, but building materials and catering services are lagging behind. Given that the data reflects the resilience of the economy, the Federal Reserve is more cautious about cutting interest rates this year.

This has affected the market's expectations of the economic outlook, which is transmitted to the crude oil market. The market was originally concerned that the economic slowdown would suppress crude oil demand, but retail data suggests that the economy is not as pessimistic, which to some extent alleviates this concern.

Previously, the price of US crude oil fluctuated violently due to the uncertain economic outlook. Influenced by this data, although it will not fluctuate significantly in the short term, in the long run, if retail data continues to improve and the economy develops steadily, the demand for crude oil is expected to increase, providing support for oil prices.

Technically speaking, oil prices are still within the bullish range, but they are not far from the upward pressure channel. If they cannot accelerate their breakthrough in the short term, there is a possibility of a surge and a fall.

Continue to monitor whether the moving average is accelerating upwards, driving oil prices to break through, and pay attention to the pressure of the $80 integer level at the daily level.