On January 31st, spot gold trading was around 2793.55, with gold prices rising to a historic high on Thursday, stimulated by safe haven demand triggered by the threat of US tariffs. At the same time, the market is also paying attention to an important inflation report in search of clues to the Federal Reserve's policy path. US crude oil traded around $73.24 per barrel, and oil prices rose on Thursday. However, the US threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude oil imports, which may take effect this weekend, suppressing the increase in oil prices.

Federal Reserve Governor Baumann delivered a speech on the US economy and banking industry, while European Central Bank Managing Director Villeroy gave a speech.

equity market

After the Federal Reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts on Thursday, the market weighed the performance of large technology stocks, and the three major indexes of the US stock market fluctuated positively on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened low and rose high, with a maximum increase of 295 points, closing up 168 points or 0.4% at 44882 points. The S&P 500 index closed up 0.5% on Thursday at 6071 points; The revenue increased by 0.3% and was reported at 19681 points.

The performance of technology stocks has become the focus, with Microsoft's net profit rising by 10% in the second quarter, exceeding expectations, but Azure Cloud's growth is lagging behind, causing the stock price to fall by 6.2%. Tesla's earnings in the previous quarter were lower than expected, and it will launch affordable car models as scheduled, with its stock price rising 2.8% for the day. Meta had 3.35 billion daily active users in the previous quarter, with better than expected revenue and a narrowed stock price increase to 1.6%.

Apple's quarterly profit announced on Thursday exceeded Wall Street's expectations, but iPhone sales and revenue in the Chinese market were weak. Apple's overall sales and profits were boosted by stronger than expected iPad and Mac sales, which use new chips to help persuade customers to upgrade.

According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), iPhone sales have slightly declined to $69.14 billion, with analysts expecting $71.03 billion due to a lack of artificial intelligence selling points. The sales revenue in Greater China decreased to 18.51 billion US dollars, compared to 20.82 billion US dollars in the same period last year, which is lower than the expected 21.33 billion US dollars by Visible Alpha after surveying five analysts.

According to LSEG data, the total sales for the first quarter ending December 28th were $124.3 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of $124.12 billion, with earnings per share of $2.40, surpassing analysts' expectations of $2.35.

Apple is preparing to launch a series of AI based features, such as drafting emails and transcribing call content into text, but the company is slow to roll out these features. Apple CEO Tim Cook said in an interview that the AI feature called "Apple Intelligence" is driving sales of the company's new devices.

gold market

Gold prices rose to a historic high on Thursday, stimulated by safe haven demand triggered by the threat of US tariffs. At the same time, the market is also paying attention to an important inflation report in search of clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path.

On Friday (January 31st Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 2793.55, with gold prices rising to a historic high on Thursday, stimulated by safe haven demand triggered by the threat of US tariffs. At the same time, the market is also paying attention to an important inflation report in search of clues to the Federal Reserve's policy path. US crude oil traded around $73.24 per barrel, and oil prices rose on Thursday. However, the US threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude oil imports, which may take effect this weekend, suppressing the increase in oil prices.

Spot gold was reported at $2794.69 per ounce, up 1.3%, and hit a historic high of $2798.24 at the beginning of trading. US futures rose 1.9% to $2822.30.

Jim Wyckoff, Senior Market Analyst at Kitco Metals, said, "We are seeing stronger uncertainty and anxiety brought about by the Trump administration's new policies on trade and foreign policy, and new technical buying is pouring in as the prices of gold and silver are now trending upwards

Earlier this week, the White House announced that US President Trump plans to impose high tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Saturday, causing the US dollar to fall 0.2% and lowering the price of gold against other currency holders, while the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to its lowest level in over a month. On Thursday, as expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and Chairman Powell said he would not rush to cut rates again.

Data shows that the US economy slowed down in the fourth quarter, but analysts believe that strong domestic demand may keep the Federal Reserve on a slow path of interest rate cuts. Investors are currently awaiting the release of the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for the United States on Friday.

Spot silver rose 2.5% to $31.58 per ounce. Platinum rose 2.3% to $968.50; Palladium rose 1.4% to $975.50.

Crude oil market

Oil prices rose on Thursday, but the United States threatened to impose tariffs on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico, which may take effect this weekend, suppressing the increase in oil prices.

Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.4% at $76.87 per barrel. US crude oil futures closed at $72.73 per barrel, up 11 cents or 0.2% from Wednesday, and oil prices closed at their lowest level so far this year on Wednesday.

Phil Flynn, Senior Analyst at Price Futures Group, said, "We are getting closer and closer to the deadline, and people are starting to get nervous

US President Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday if they cannot stop fentanyl from flowing into the US from their countries.

The winter storm hit demand in the United States last week, causing a 3.5 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories due to refinery production cuts. A Reuters survey showed that analysts had previously expected inventory to increase by 3.2 million barrels.

Investors are still paying attention to the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, scheduled for February 3rd.

foreign exchange market

The US dollar rose against some currencies such as the Japanese yen and the euro on Thursday, as the market weighed new tariff threats, slower than expected US economic growth, and interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank.

US President Trump announced on Thursday that the United States will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and Canada, reiterating his warning to these two major trading partners of the United States.

Adam Button, Chief Monetary Analyst at ForexLive in Toronto, said that when Trump says something is about to happen, the market often doesn't believe it or fully accepts it until the order is signed, and the market is clearly caught off guard at that time.

The data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that due to weak corporate spending, the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, slightly lower than analysts' expectations. The inflation rate has risen, and the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index has increased by 2.5%.

As widely expected by the market, the European Central Bank has lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points and opened the door for further interest rate cuts, as concerns about economic downturn have replaced concerns about sustained inflation.

After Trump's speech, the US dollar surged sharply against the Canadian dollar. The US dollar rose 0.55% against the Canadian dollar to 1.45 Canadian dollars.

The US dollar fell 0.54% against the Japanese yen to 154.36. The US dollar rose 0.33% to 0.91 against the Swiss franc. The euro reversed its earlier gains, falling 0.24% to $1.0395.

The US dollar index, which measures the exchange rate of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.2% to 108.12. The Federal Reserve maintained its overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25% -4.50% on Thursday, and officials no longer mentioned that inflation has "made progress" towards the Fed's 2% inflation target.

In contrast, other central banks including Canada and Sweden have lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. The Brazilian central bank raised interest rates by a full percentage point overnight to 13.25% and stated that it will continue to raise rates in the future.

Vice Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ryo Shimino, stated on Thursday that if the economic and price trends align with the bank's predictions, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates.

international news 

Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods starting from February 1st

On January 20th, when signing a series of executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House, Trump told the media that he was considering imposing a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, and the tax action may be implemented from February 1st this year. (CCTV)

The European Central Bank cuts interest rates and retains the possibility of further easing policies

The European Central Bank cut interest rates as expected on Thursday and reserved the possibility of further easing policies. The European Central Bank insists on its view that despite concerns about global trade, inflation in the eurozone is increasingly under control. This is the fifth interest rate cut by the European Central Bank since June 2024, and this action has been fully digested by the market. The European Central Bank has stated that the anti inflation process is on track. However, domestic inflation is still at a high level, mainly because wages and prices in certain industries are still adapting to past inflation surges, but the adjustment time has been greatly delayed. But as expected, wage growth is slowing down and profits are partially buffering the impact on inflation. After Trump did not immediately impose comprehensive tariffs, European Central Bank policymakers may breathe a sigh of relief at the meeting.

Trump said he will probably make a decision on oil tariffs on Thursday night

US President Trump said he will probably make a decision on the oil tariffs tonight. We may or may not make a decision tonight, "he said when talking about taxing oil. Trump said it is still unclear whether tariffs will apply to oil imports. He said a decision may be made on Thursday night, depending in part on oil prices. Trump added that Mexico and Canada have never treated the United States well, and the United States does not need all products from Canada and Mexico. Trump reiterated that he will impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Saturday.

The domestic political tension in Ukraine has escalated, and a dispute has erupted between Kiev Mayor and Zelensky

The political tension within Ukraine has been escalating. In a video speech released on Wednesday, Kiev Mayor Klitschko made a shocking public condemnation of President Zelensky, stating that the presidential office had abused its power under martial law. Klitschko was once a heavyweight boxing champion and established a political foundation in the capital. For many years, he has been in a relatively mild dispute with Zelensky, and in his view, the president's attempt to usurp the authority of the city has angered him. He accused Zelensky of appointing a military administrator for the city in an attempt to take over the power of the elected city council. When you, as the supreme commander, focus on war and defending Ukraine, the people around you tirelessly participate in political conspiracies, "Klitschko said. Ukrainian civil society groups have long been concerned that the central government is using military administrators to strengthen its control over power, even on issues not directly related to national defense.

The European Central Bank may remove the 'restrictive' label of its monetary policy stance as early as March

According to insiders, the European Central Bank may abandon using the term "restrictive" to describe its monetary policy stance at its March interest rate meeting. According to informed sources who declined to be named due to confidentiality of the discussion, it is highly likely that the deposit rate will be lowered by another 25 basis points in March, thereby lowering it to 2.5%, which may no longer fully match the label of "restrictive". Therefore, they stated that officials will consider adjusting the wording in the interest rate statement when discussing monetary policy next time.

Slovak officials: European natural gas prices hit a new high after Ukraine's gas cut

On January 30th local time, Danisa Sakova, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Slovakia, posted on social media that natural gas prices in Europe are rising and reaching their highest level in over a year. This is due to Ukraine's unilateral decision to stop natural gas transit. Sakova pointed out that this has not only caused trouble for European countries, but also for Ukraine itself. The natural gas volume in Ukraine's storage facilities has dropped to the critical point of 10%. After the cessation of Russian natural gas transit, Ukraine needs to import at least 100 million cubic meters of natural gas per month.

The US economy slowed down in the fourth quarter, but spending remained strong

The US economy slowed down in the fourth quarter, but strong domestic demand may keep the Federal Reserve at a slow pace of interest rate cuts this year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce stated on Thursday in its preliminary GDP forecast that the fourth quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.3%, lower than market expectations. Although the growth rate has slowed down, the US economy's growth rate last year still went against the Federal Reserve's forecast of raising interest rates by 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023 to quell inflation and drive economic recession. Meanwhile, consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of the economy, grew at a rate of 4.2% in the fourth quarter, indicating that domestic demand remains strong.