On Tuesday (March 11th), before the European market opened, the USD/CHF to around 0.8800, indicating downward pressure. This market trend reflects a rapid change in market sentiment: concerns about global trade tensions have intensified, and safe haven funds have quickly flowed into the Swiss franc, providing support for it.

At the same time, concerns about the slowdown of the US economy and the uncertainty of the Trump administration's tariff policies continue to weigh on the US dollar, putting pressure on the US dollar/Swiss franc exchange rate. The market is focusing on the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, hoping to find further clues about the trend of the US dollar.

Fundamental analysis:

The current market sentiment is driven by multiple factors. Firstly, the escalating global trade tensions have raised doubts in the market about the growth prospects of the US economy. Analysts believe that although the US dollar has traditionally been seen as a safe haven asset, the recent sustained decline in the US equity market has prompted risk averse markets to turn to the classic safe haven currency of the Swiss franc, pushing the US dollar/Swiss franc exchange rate to a several month low.

In addition, the poor performance of US economic data has further intensified the market's bearish sentiment towards the US dollar. Market concerns that the uncertainty of tariff policies may trigger a slowdown in US economic growth have put significant selling pressure on the US dollar. At the same time, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are also changing. According to LSEG data, traders generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, with the June rate cut fully priced in. If the US February CPI data released on Wednesday is lower than expected, signals of slowing inflation may further strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts, thereby putting greater pressure on the US dollar.

The attractiveness of the Swiss franc as a safe haven currency is particularly prominent in the current environment. When the market's risk aversion sentiment heats up, funds often withdraw from risky assets and flow into low volatility currencies such as the Swiss franc. This flow of funds directly boosted the demand for the Swiss franc, leading to a sustained decline in the US dollar/Swiss franc exchange rate. The upcoming CPI data will become a key guide for market direction in the short term, and if the data shows weakness, the downward trend of the US dollar may continue.

Technical analyst interpretation:

From a technical perspective, the US dollar/Swiss franc is currently showing a clear downward trend, with bearish forces dominating. The following is a detailed analysis of the daily chart and 240 minute chart:

Daily chart analysis:

On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands show a large range of price fluctuations, and recently prices have approached the lower band of the Bollinger Bands (around 0.8757). This level serves as a key support level. If it is effectively breached, it may open up further downward space, and the next target level may point to the 0.8739 or even 0.8700 area. In history, the lower Bollinger Bands have provided support for prices multiple times, but the current market sentiment is bearish and the rebound momentum appears insufficient.

The MACD indicator continues to operate in the negative zone, and the negative separation between the DIFF and DEA lines indicates that selling pressure remains strong, and the possibility of price reversal in the short term is low. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has not yet entered the oversold zone, indicating that there is still room for the bearish trend to continue, but also suggesting that the market has not yet reached an extremely pessimistic state. If the price falls below 0.8757, bearish momentum may accelerate.

240 minute chart analysis:

On the 240 minute (4-hour) chart, the USD/CHF price is clearly operating within a downward channel, showing a fluctuating downward trend. The moving average system further confirms the bearish pattern: the short-term moving average MA9 continues to be below the medium-term moving average MA50 and the long-term moving average MA200, with the three lines arranged in a bearish pattern, indicating the weak characteristics of the market trend. The upper track of the downward channel (around 0.8820) has repeatedly suppressed price rebounds, while the lower track (close to 0.8757) will become a key test in the short term.

The MACD indicator is also in the negative zone on the 240 minute chart, and the negative cross between the DIFF and DEA lines strengthens the bearish signal. The RSI is currently hovering at a moderately low level, indicating that although market sentiment is bearish, there are no signs of excessive selling. This means that prices may continue to explore the downward trend, especially driven by bearish fundamentals.

Comprehensive technical judgment:

Combining the signals from the daily chart and the 240 minute chart, the US dollar/Swiss franc is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. As a key support level, the gain or loss of 0.8757 will determine the trend of the next stage. If it falls below this level, the bearish targets will point to 0.8739 and 0.8700; On the contrary, if the price gains support and rebounds around 0.8757, attention should be paid to the resistance strength of the upper track 0.8820 on the downward channel. However, the bearish trend of current technical indicators and the basic suppression of the US dollar make the downside risk significantly higher than the possibility of a rebound. Pay attention to the market reaction after the release of Wednesday's CPI data, which may become a catalyst for triggering the next wave of market trends.

conclusion

The current downward trend of USD/CHF is the result of fundamental and technical resonance. Fundamentally, global trade tensions and concerns about a slowdown in the US economy have weakened the attractiveness of the US dollar, while the safe haven status of the Swiss franc has been strengthened. On a technical level, both the daily chart and the 240 minute chart show a bearish pattern, and the gains or losses at the key support level of 0.8757 will be crucial. The upcoming US CPI data will serve as a short-term market trend indicator, and if the data weakens, the US dollar/Swiss franc may accelerate its downward trend.