According to Dow Jones Newswires, a trade war triggered by Trump's tariff policies is profoundly reshaping the local economic landscape in Davenport, Iowa, located in the heartland of the United States. This "four city region" (actually covering five cities) with manufacturing and agriculture as its pillars has been caught up in the storm center due to its high dependence on global trade. Enterprises are forced to survive in turmoil, some rise to prominence, some undergo difficult transformations, and the outcome of this game may determine the future fate of the "Rust Belt" in the United States.

The Song of Ice and Fire in Manufacturing

Deere, as the regional economic engine, has experienced a significant decline in performance due to weak demand for agricultural equipment and the impact of tariffs - with quarterly profits plummeting by 50% and layoffs initiated. But not all companies are being passively beaten: metal processing company Bow Machine seized market share with six months of raw material inventory, and its Vice President of Operations Jon Gentry bluntly said, "I can withstand this storm." However, century old chemical equipment company Parr Instrument was forced to pay an extra $40000 in "unjustified taxes" for government laboratory projects due to European steel tariffs, and its CEO sarcastically said, "This is the government taxing itself

The painful transformation of agriculture

The sword of Damocles' retaliatory tariffs in Mexico is hanging high, and local dairy farmer John Maxwell is accelerating his shift towards high value-added cheese production, developing new products such as smoked whiskey and cheddar cheese, and openly stating that "transformation is going out to sell more cheese". Soybean grower Robb Ewoldt, while supporting Trump, has to admit: "Tariffs have never been a good thing, even though they seemed effective before the pandemic." Economist Bill Polley's data reveals the harsh reality: after the first round of tariffs in 2019, regional exports plummeted by 10%.

The Tear between Political Beliefs and Commercial Reality

This traditional Democratic stronghold will shift towards the Republican Party in 2024, reflecting expectations for 'fair trade'. But business leaders soon realized that the uncertainty brought by tariffs was more difficult than they had imagined. Although the CEO of Parr Instrument voted for Trump, he strongly criticized Asian competitors for "stealing and imitating designs"; Deere, which was criticized by Trump for transferring production lines to Mexico, is now using its global supply chain to mitigate the impact of tariffs. The interweaving of support and complaints highlights the complex ecology after the implementation of policies.

Survival or destruction?

The predicament of the four city area is like a micro mirror of the American economy: on one hand, there is a brief carnival of local enterprises under the slogan of "America First", and on the other hand, there is a prolonged pain brought about by the rupture of the global industrial chain. As freight trains continue to honk along the Mississippi River, the workers here are answering in the simplest way possible - some are hoarding goods, some are innovating and seeking change, and some are forced to leave. This breakthrough battle in the hinterland may not have a winner, but it undoubtedly wrote the most vivid footnote to the global trade war.

The US dollar may benefit from its "safe haven" attribute in the short term, but if the trade war continues, the "internal damage" to the US economy will become apparent (such as the contraction of manufacturing in the four city region), coupled with the global trend of de dollarization, and there will be significant downside risks in the medium to long term. The survival battle of these hinterland enterprises may be an early signal of the loosening of the US dollar hegemony.