At the beginning of the Asian market on Thursday (September 5th), international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with US crude oil currently trading around $69.52 per barrel. Crude oil futures fluctuated on Wednesday, with settlement prices falling more than $1 per barrel, hitting a new low since mid December. Traders are concerned about demand in the coming months, and oil producing countries are sending mixed signals to increase supply.

Brent crude oil futures closed down $1.05, or 1.42%, at $72.70 per barrel on Wednesday. US crude oil futures closed down $1.14, or 1.62%, at $69.20 on Wednesday.

There are reports that OPEC+is discussing the possibility of delaying production increases due to the expected increase in Libyan production. The intraday indicator crude oil fluctuated within a range of up $1 and down $1.

Brent crude oil futures plummeted 11%, or about $9, in just over a week, hitting a low of $72.63 on Wednesday.

The sluggish data from the United States and major Asian countries have strengthened expectations of weak global economy and oil demand, helping to trigger a widespread decline in the global market.

The recently released data has intensified concerns about weak demand in Asia, the world's largest crude oil importer, and a blow to US consumption.

Last Saturday, data from major Asian countries showed that manufacturing activity in August fell to a six-month low, while new home price growth slowed down.

On Tuesday, data from the American Institute of Supply Management showed that the manufacturing industry remains sluggish.

The July job vacancies announced by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday fell to the lowest level in three and a half years and the decline was greater than expected, indicating that the labor market is losing momentum.

The economic condition brown book released by the Federal Reserve shows that from mid July to late August, the expansion rate of US economic activity slowed down.

However, a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce shows that the trade deficit widened by 7.9% in July, reaching the highest level since June 2022 at $78.8 billion, highlighting strong domestic demand.

Four OPEC+sources said that the alliance is discussing delaying the oil production increase plan originally scheduled to start in October, after oil prices fell to their lowest level in nine months.

A source said that the fragile sentiment in the oil market surrounding the prospect of increased supply from OPEC+and the end of the dispute that caused disruptions to Libyan exports, coupled with a weakening demand outlook, has raised concerns within the alliance.

Another source said that delaying the production increase plan looks "highly likely". All sources have refused to disclose their names. OPEC and the Saudi government's communication office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

ANZ analysts said in a report, "The OPEC+report brought some relief to the market in early trading

However, ANZ Bank added that the news of factory activity in major Asian countries shrinking for the fourth consecutive month in August has added pressure to demand concerns.

The release of weekly inventory data in the United States has been postponed due to the Labor Day holiday on Monday.

According to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), both crude and refined oil inventories in the United States decreased last week. API data shows that as of the week ending August 30th, US crude oil inventories plummeted by 7.431 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 336000 barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 406000 barrels.

The report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released on Thursday at 23:00 Beijing time. A preliminary investigation by Reuters shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to decline last week.

This trading day also requires attention to the August ADP employment data in the United States, changes in initial jobless claims in the United States, August ISM non manufacturing PMI in the United States, and geopolitical situation related news. Pay attention to the official crude oil prices announced by Saudi Aramco around the 5th of each month.

From a technical perspective, the bearish alignment of the moving average MACD and KDJ dead crosses is running well, and there is still further downside risk in short-term oil prices. Pay attention to the support near the low point of 67.69 on December 13 and the support near the low point of 66.79 on June 12, 2023. Pay attention to the resistance near the 70 integer level and the August 21st low of 71.46, as well as the 5-day moving average resistance near this position.

Continuous daily chart of US crude oil