The following is Friday (November 1st) financial breakfast, including important fundamental news, precious metals/crude oil/foreign exchange/commodity/stock/bond markets, international news, domestic news, institutional views, today's important financial data, and major financial events. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States decreased last week, reaching the lowest level since May. The growth rate of PCE inflation index in the United States, coupled with a rebound in consumer spending, has stimulated the rise of the US dollar index. The data put an end to the unexpected upward trend in recent economic reports, indicating that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in future interest rate cuts. Iran claims to launch an unimaginable counterattack against Israel, and the situation in the Middle East may become tense again.

Overview of Major Global Market Trends

1. Precious metals

On Thursday, spot gold fell sharply to a intraday low of $2731.55 before rebounding and ultimately closing down 1.52% at $2743.84 per ounce. Spot silver fell more than 3% during the day, ultimately closing down 3.31% at $32.65 per ounce.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Shengbao Bank, stated that the November US presidential election is seen as a significant risk event for precious metals, which could lead to a pullback in gold prices exceeding $100.

2. Crude oil

Due to Iran's announcement of an unimaginable counterattack against Israel, tensions in the Middle East are likely to escalate again. International crude oil continued to rise on Thursday, with WTI crude oil rising more than 2% at one point and reaching above the $70 mark before falling back and ultimately closing up 2.05% at $70.27 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.87% at $73.99 per barrel.

3. Foreign exchange

On Thursday, the US dollar index rose and fell below the 104 mark, ultimately closing down 0.2% at 103.89.

On Thursday, the EUR/USD continued to rebound, closing up 0.26% at 1.0883. Kaitou Macro said that rising inflation in the Eurozone may hinder the ECB from accelerating interest rate cuts, and it is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next month.

On Thursday, the Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates as scheduled, but held a hawkish stance. The Japanese yen rebounded across the board, while the USD/JPY saw a high-level pullback, closing down 0.91% at 152.03. Mizuho Securities said that if the non farm payroll data is strong, there is room for the US dollar to rise against the Japanese yen, with a focus on 155 points.

On Thursday, GBP/USD fell to a low of 1.2843, closing down 0.49% at 1.2898. UBS predicts that the Bank of England will only cut interest rates once in 2024. Given that UK interest rates are still relatively high compared to other countries, this will provide support for the pound.

4. Products

On Thursday, LME copper closed down 0.13% at $9547 per ton; LME aluminum rebounded 0.42% to $2626 per ton; LME zinc continued its downward trend, closing down 1.6% at $3037.50 per ton.

5. Stock market

On Thursday, the three major A-share indexes fluctuated and strengthened. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.57%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.6%. The photovoltaic concept, real estate, diversified finance, securities and other sectors have performed well.

On Thursday, the German DAX30 index fell 197.98 points, or 1.03%, to close at 19068.75 points; The FTSE 100 index in the UK fell 57.17 points, or 0.70%, to close at 8102.46 points; The French CAC40 index fell 77.99 points, or 1.05%, to close at 7350.37 points; The European Stoxx 50 Index fell 62.30 points, or 1.28%, to close at 4823.45 points; The Spanish IBEX35 index fell 45.00 points, or 0.38%, to close at 11670.00 points; The FTSE MIB index in Italy fell 225.70 points, or 0.65%, to close at 34277.00 points.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 index fell 44.30 points, or 0.76%, to 5769.40 points; The Nasdaq index fell 230.56 points, or 1.24%, to 18377.371 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 214.47 points, or 0.51%, to 41927.07 points.

6. Bond market

On Thursday, US Treasury yields fell slightly, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.282%; The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.170%

international news 

① Iran claims to launch unimaginable counterattacks against Israel

② US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the negotiators of all parties have made "good progress" in the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon

③ According to market research, bearish expectations for the Indian rupee are approaching their highest point in a year, bearish positions for the Korean won are also increasing, and bearish positions for the Indonesian rupee are the strongest since July 11th

④ According to market research, the rate of interest rate cuts by most Asian central banks is expected to be lower than that of the Federal Reserve in the next year, thanks to the steady economic growth easing the pressure to maintain the stability of their currencies against the US dollar

⑤ British Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves tried to calm the anxiety in the financial market after the budget led to a sharp drop in the price of British treasury bond bonds, stressing that the "primary task" of the Labour government is "economic and financial stability"

⑥ The International Monetary Fund has lowered its economic growth forecast for the Middle East due to regional conflicts and a decrease in oil production

⑦ European natural gas prices fall due to mild temperatures and stable supply

⑧ Russian media reports: Russia plans to maintain restrictions on gasoline exports

⑨ Investors predict that by the end of 2025, the Bank of England will implement less than four 25 basis point rate cuts, while the market currently reflects expectations of a 95 basis point rate cut

⑩ Indonesia has submitted an application to join the BRICS countries.

Domestic news

① The six major banks will implement a new mechanism for adjusting the interest rates of existing housing loans. After the implementation of a new pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loan interest rates, the People's Bank of China will no longer uniformly adjust the interest rates of existing housing loans

② The official website of the People's Bank of China has added a column titled "Announcement on Open Market Buyout Reverse Repurchase Business". The central bank launched a 500 billion yuan buyout style reverse repurchase operation in October

③ Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Improve Cement Capacity Replacement Standards

④ Guangzhou Port: October cargo throughput increased by 4.1% year-on-year

⑤ The third phase of the 136th Canton Fair, which lasts for 5 days, will open on October 31st

⑥ In October, China's PMI rose month on month for two consecutive months and returned to the expansion range

⑦ The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Emergency Plan for Data Security Incidents in the Industrial and Information Technology Field (Trial)" on October 31, 2024

Summary of institutional viewpoints

① Jay Kaeppel, senior research analyst at SentimenTrader: Gold may rise to an unsustainable high, eventually forming a foam and then bursting

② Citigroup predicts that gold prices are expected to reach $3000 per ounce within six months

③ UBS CEO: The US election will not be a 'calm event' for the global market

④ Barclays predicts that non farm payroll in the United States will increase by 125000 in October

⑤ Kaitou Macro: Expected Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in December

⑥ ING: The weakness of the US dollar is mainly driven by external events

⑦ Goldman Sachs currently predicts that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting, which is different from the previously expected 25 basis point rate cut

⑧ Royal Bank of Canada: Will only cut interest rates three more times in the next three Federal Reserve meetings, each by 25 basis points, and then pause rates at 4% -4.25% levels for the remainder of 2025

⑨ Market analyst Karen Gilchrist said that Switzerland is currently facing deflation, putting the central bank in a dilemma

Today's key data and major events