Weekly Review of the Gold Market

2025-01-19 2167

The gold price was suppressed by the rise of the US dollar on Friday, but still achieved a weekly increase. The uncertainty of the new US President Trump's policies and bets on further interest rate cuts reignited, causing the gold price to rise above the key level of $2700.

Spot gold fell 0.45% to $2702.35 per ounce; US gold futures fell 0.1% to $2748.70. David Meger, head of metal trading at High Ridge Futures, said, "Today's pullback was not significant, it was more of a profit taking trend, perhaps aided by the slight increase in the US dollar during the day, adding some slight pressure

Gold hit a new high in over a month on Thursday, still $65.6 short of the historic high of $2790.15 set in October. This week, the price of gold has risen by 0.5%, marking the third consecutive week of increase. On Wednesday, the lower than expected core inflation data in the United States intensified market speculation that the Federal Reserve had cut interest rates more than once.

Traders expect two interest rate cuts before the end of the year, and Federal Reserve Governor Waller hinted that if economic data further weakens, there may be more interest rate cuts.

According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), during the week of January 14th, speculators' net long positions in COMEX gold increased by 17995 contracts to 212494 contracts, reaching a five week high.

The net long position in COMEX silver has increased to 28803 contracts, reaching a five week high. The net long position in COMEX copper increased to 13917 contracts, reaching a 10 week high.

The net long position in NYMEX platinum has increased to 7070 contracts, reaching an eight week high. The net short position in NYMEX palladium has decreased to 11693 contracts.

The market is currently eagerly anticipating Trump's inauguration ceremony on January 20th, and his extensive trade tariffs are expected to further ignite inflation and trigger trade tensions, potentially increasing the safe haven appeal of gold.

Spot silver fell 2% to $30.17 per ounce; Palladium rose 1% to $949.99; Platinum rose 0.9% to $940.28.

Ajay Kedia, head of Kedia Commodities in Mumbai, said that this week's inflation data supports expectations of interest rate cuts, and the weakening of the US dollar supports gold.

Kedia said, "We believe the support level is at $2694, and if it breaks through the level of $2720, gold prices will move towards a high of $2770

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if US economic data further weakens, there is still a possibility of three to four interest rate cuts this year.

An analyst from ANZ Bank said, "Although market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts remain crucial, we believe that gold will demonstrate its attractiveness in diversifying risk amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties

US President elect Trump will begin his second term next week, and analysts expect his policies to fuel inflation, which remains a focus of attention.

The outgoing US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the Treasury Department will implement special accounting practices starting from January 21st to avoid exceeding the debt ceiling. She once again urged lawmakers to take measures to raise or suspend the statutory cap. Yellen wrote in a letter to leaders of both parties in Congress on Friday, warning lawmakers that the Treasury Department will begin using unconventional measures from January 21st.

Some bond market strategists expect that with Trump taking office again on January 20th, it will be easier to reach an agreement on suspending or lifting the cap, as Republicans control both houses of Congress and the White House. However, before the agreement is reached, the Ministry of Finance will need to take measures that have been repeatedly used for decades to avoid exceeding the upper limit. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary nominated by Trump to replace Yellen, promised at a Senate hearing on Thursday that if his nomination is confirmed, the United States will not default on its debt.

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