Recently, US President Trump expressed his views on whether to impose new tariffs on Russian oil, causing a strong market reaction. Trump stated that he does not believe Putin will "break his promise", which to some extent eased his previously angry words.

Previously, he had expressed "great anger" towards Russian President Putin and considered imposing secondary tariffs on Russian oil.

Although Trump's attitude has softened, the market is still concerned about his tariff threat. The Brent crude oil contract opened slightly higher in June and fell to around $72 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remained at around $69.

Trump's tariff threat has intensified market uncertainty about future oil supply, especially when the US is about to impose reciprocal tariffs on other countries, which could trigger more retaliatory measures.

The scale of Russia's oil trade is huge, and Trump must weigh the pros and cons of his policies, "said an analyst at Qisheng Futures. Whether these tariffs are just tough words or will actually be implemented remains to be seen

Russia is one of the three major oil producing countries in the world, so any collective action aimed at punishing Putin could have a profound impact on the global crude oil market. Especially since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has become a major buyer of Russian oil. If these countries are sanctioned, they will face enormous pressure.

According to data, Russia's crude oil exports reached a five month high in March, while US sanctions on Russian tanker fleets seem to be showing some signs of weakness. In an interview with NBC, Trump stated that if an agreement on the Ukraine issue cannot be reached and "if I believe it is Russia's fault," he will impose new punitive measures on Russia.

Despite the market volatility caused by Trump's tariff threat, the oil market is still paying attention to OPEC+'s production policies. OPEC+plans to resume production that has been put on hold from next month, exacerbating market concerns about oversupply of oil.

Brent crude oil futures may see a slight increase this month, but major traders remain pessimistic about the market outlook for the remainder of the year, considering expectations of increased supply.

The tariffs and sanctions imposed by the United States have intensified market concerns about potential disruptions in oil flows, which is also one of the reasons why Brent crude oil futures prices have rebounded. However, OPEC+'s plan to resume production may put more supply pressure on the market, affecting the long-term trend of crude oil prices.

Editor's viewpoint:

Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Russian oil has brought more uncertainty to the market. Although it is unknown whether tariffs will actually be implemented, the market is already responding to future oil supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, OPEC+'s production recovery plan may exacerbate the risk of oversupply. It is necessary to closely monitor the progress of negotiations between Trump and Putin, as well as changes in the global oil market supply, in order to cope with the upcoming market fluctuations.