Against the backdrop of intensified global trade concerns, international oil prices plummeted by 2% on Monday, hitting a nearly four-year low, indicating strong concerns in the energy market about the global economic slowdown.

Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.21 per barrel, down 2.1%; US WTI crude oil futures closed at $60.70 per barrel, also down 2.1%. Both have hit their lowest levels since April 2021, with oil prices falling more than 11% in the past week. Although there was a rebound during the Asian session on Tuesday, the bullish momentum is limited, so beware of a second decline.

Trump announced last week that he will impose new tariffs on imported goods from Asian countries and threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff if the other party does not revoke retaliatory measures. This statement shattered the market's hope for easing negotiations and further ignited concerns about the global economy falling into recession.

The European Union has also joined the countermeasures, and the United States is facing a multilateral trade confrontation. According to market research, the European Commission proposed on Monday to impose a 25% countermeasure tariff on a series of American products as a response to the US steel and aluminum tariff policy, further escalating trade tensions among major economies around the world.

Saudi Arabia lowers crude oil prices, signaling weak supply and demand. Saudi Aramco announced on Sunday that it will lower crude oil prices for Asian buyers to the lowest level in four months, reflecting oil producing countries' expectations of weak energy demand in the Asian region.

Institutional viewpoint: Oil prices will continue to be under pressure, and the risk of recession will rapidly rise

Goldman Sachs pointed out that the probability of the United States falling into a recession in the next 12 months is as high as 45%, leading to a downward adjustment in oil price forecasts

Citigroup and Morgan Stanley said, "Brent crude oil may fall below $60 in the coming months due to a significant blow to the demand outlook

JPMorgan Chase further added, "We believe that the likelihood of the global economy falling into recession is as high as 60%

Editor's viewpoint:

The continuous decline in oil prices not only reflects short-term fluctuations in the energy market, but also reflects the market's deep concerns about systemic risks in the global economy. The continuous escalation of tariff policies has spread trade concerns from an emotional level to actual consumption expectations.

Even if oil producing countries try to intervene in the market by adjusting prices, with weak global demand and generally pessimistic expectations from financial institutions, oil prices may enter a new round of bottoming out.