On Friday (June 21) in the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading near the 2360 level. Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, or more than $30, reaching a peak of $2365.35 per ounce, the highest level in two weeks, closing at $2359.87 per ounce. Recent US economic data showed signs of slowing, boosting bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this year.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at Dao Ming Securities, said, "The market is increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to launch an easing program. I suspect there may be some long positions entering the market."

The US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that the number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits decreased last week, but the latest data shows that the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits is the highest since January, which is a sign that the US job market continues to cool.

In addition, another data released by the US Department of Commerce shows that the housing market is still struggling under the heavy pressure of high interest rates implemented by the Federal Reserve. In May, both housing starts and construction permits decreased to the lowest level in about four years.

The US Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 5000 in the week ending June 15th, to 238000 after seasonal adjustments. This reversed about one-third of the surge in the previous week, which had pushed the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits to the highest level in 10 months. Economists estimate that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week was 235000.

Since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 525 basis points in 2022 to curb inflation, the momentum of the labor market has weakened in sync with the overall economy. The relaxation of labor market conditions has led to a weakening of inflationary pressure, and although Federal Reserve decision-makers have a more hawkish outlook, financial markets expect one or more interest rate cuts this year.

The period during which the government conducted a survey on employers for the non farm employment portion of the June employment report is also included in the initial unemployment benefit data. Although employment growth accelerated in May, this may have exaggerated the health of the labor market. The unemployment rate rose to 4.0% in May, the first time since January 2022, and there are signs that unemployed workers may find it harder to find new jobs.

The data on renewing unemployment benefits next week may provide more clues to the labor market situation in June. In the week ending June 8th, the seasonally adjusted number of people renewing unemployment benefits increased to 1.828 million, the highest since January.

"The initial unemployment benefit data indicates that the growth in non farm employment in May will not reappear in June," Ryan Sweet, Chief US Economist at the Oxford Institute of Economics, wrote after the latest unemployment benefit data was released. "The risks in the labor market should be of concern to the Federal Reserve."

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, the housing market is still facing pressure due to the Federal Reserve's restrictive policies, which have led to high borrowing costs for home purchases. Driven by a significant decline in multi household residential projects, the overall housing construction volume decreased by 5.5% last month, to 1.277 million households, the lowest since June 2020. The construction volume of single household housing, which accounts for the majority of residential construction, has also declined. The adjusted annual rate for the previous menstrual season was 982000 households, a decrease of 5.2%, the lowest level since October. Economists interviewed by Reuters predict that the operating volume will rebound to 137 households last month.

The revised data for April shows that the annual operating rate of single household residential buildings has increased from the previously reported 1.031 million households to 1.036 million households.

The average interest rate on 30-year fixed mortgage loans continued to decline after exceeding 7% again in April and May. According to data from mortgage financing firm Freddie Mac on Thursday, the average interest rate in the past week has dropped to 6.87%, the lowest level since April, due to the easing of labor market conditions, making it possible for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year.

In May, construction permits decreased by 3.8%, the lowest since June 2020, similar to the operating rate. The number of applications for single family residential permits decreased by 2.9% to 949000 households, the lowest in nearly a year.

Last week's data showed a slowdown in labor market and price pressures, and the weak retail sales data released on Tuesday suggests that economic activity in the second quarter remains lackluster.

Kim Wyackoff, Senior Market Analyst at Kitco Metals, said in a report, "Following the weak retail sales report released earlier this week in the United States, bullish sentiment in precious metals increased later this week."

According to the FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), traders currently believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is about 64%.

Vladimir Zernov, an independent trader and analyst at Fxempire, predicted that the gold market would rise despite the strength of the US dollar and the rise in the yield of US treasury bond bonds. The intensification of geopolitical tensions and strong demand for precious metals; If the gold price remains above $2350 per ounce, it will fall towards the resistance level of $2390-2400 per ounce.

Technically speaking, at the daily level, gold prices have currently broken through the key position of the 50 day moving average of 2343.82, with MACD forming a golden cross and KDJ operating on a golden cross. Before falling short of the 50 day moving average, the short-term trend tends to be bullish, with upward resistance focused on resistance near the June 7th high of 2387.59 and 2400 levels.

On this trading day, pay attention to the performance of June PMI data from European and American countries, and pay attention to the annualized total sales of completed homes in the United States in May and related news on the geopolitical situation.